China shopping mall Whitehotpix/ZumaPress

中国的减速新常态

米兰—世界最大的两个经济体——美国和中国似乎再忍受长期减速。但它们的增长轨迹仍存在相当大的不确定性,可能给资产价格、风险和经济政策造成重大影响。

美国的年实际(经通胀调整的)增长率大概在2%左右,尽管这一水平是低于还是等于经济潜力仍有待争论。与此同时,中国进入了增长率6—7%的时代,政府在去年准确地指出这是中国“新常态”。一些观察者认为这一增长率可以贯穿未来十年,如果未来几年政府实施全面改革的话。但是,其他人认为中国GDP将继续下行,并且可能出现硬着陆。

担忧其来有自。欧洲的增长缓慢而不确定——而它是美国和中国的主要贸易伙伴——这给美国和中国带来了不利影响。

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