China shopping mall Whitehotpix/ZumaPress

الصين والمعتاد الجديد المتباطئ

ميلانو ــ يبدو أن الاقتصادين الأكبر على مستوى العالم، الولايات المتحدة والصين، يعانيان من التباطؤ المزمن. ولكن يظل هناك قدر كبير من عدم اليقين بشأن مسار نمو الاقتصادين، مع ما يصاحب ذلك من عواقب مرتبطة بأسعار الأصول، والمخاطر، والسياسة الاقتصادية.

ويبدو أن الولايات المتحدة تستقر على معدلات نمو سنوية حقيقية (معدلة تبعاً للتضخم) تبلغ نحو 2%، وإن كان تحديد ما إذا كانت هذه النسبة عند مستوى إمكانات الاقتصاد أو دونها يظل يشكل مصدراً لمناقشة محتدمة. ومن ناحية أخرى، يبدو أن الصين تتجه نحو معدل نمو بنسبة 6% إلى 7%، والذي حددته الحكومة في العام الماضي باعتباره "المعتاد الجديد" للاقتصاد. ويتفق بعض المراقبين على إمكانية الحفاظ على هذا المعدل على مدى العقد المقبل أو ما إلى ذلك، شريطة أن تنفذ الحكومة مجموعة شاملة من الإصلاحات في السنوات القليلة المقبلة. غير أن آخرين يتوقعون أن يواصل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الصين الاتجاه نحو الهبوط، مع إمكانية الهبوط الحاد.

وهناك بكل تأكيد سبب للقلق. ذلك أن النمو البطيء وغير المؤكد في أوروبا ــ الشريك التجاري الرئيسي لكل من الولايات المتحدة والصين ــ يخلق رياحاً معاكسة للولايات المتحدة والصين.

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