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Politics

مشكلة السد بين الصين وميانمار

Sep 12, 2016 Brahma Chellaney

برلين - الصين مولوعة بالسدود. في الواقع، على مدى السنوات الخمسين الماضية، شيدت الصين المزيد من السدود أكثر من جميع البلدان الأخرى مجتمعة. ولكن هناك سد واحد لم تتمكن الصين من بنائه : سد ماييستون في ميانمار. ولن يدعه القادة الصينيون يضيع منهم.

وكان من المتوقع أن يقام سد ماييستون على منابع نهر إيراوادي، شريان الحياة في ميانمار. وقد صُمم هذا المشروع لإنتاج الطاقة الكهرومائية، والذي من شأنه أن يولد الطاقة بهدف تصديرها إلى الصين، في وقت كان يعتمد اقتصاد ميانمار على جارتها العملاقة. وخلال حكم المجلس العسكري الاستبدادي، واجهت ميانمار عقوبات بزعامة الولايات المتحدة، مما ساهم في الشلل الاقتصادي والعزلة الدولية الواسعة للبلاد.

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Brahma Chellaney

Writing for PS since 2009
169 Commentaries

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Water: Asia’s New Battleground (Georgetown University Press, 2011), for which he won the 2012 Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book Award.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 11 Comments on this article

ROHIT CHANDAVARKER Sep 15, 2016

As in most countries that China has embarked on engaging with, the underlying principle is the benefits it would accrue to China disregarding local concerns & profits. The merchantilist characteristic has seen China being viewed with caution across Africa, Asia & South America. The propensity of Chinese to override local peoples' sensitivities & needs is high & universal leading to disquiet & disaffection. In fact most of Chinese projects employ a large Chinee work force thereby depriving the jobs for the domestic workers. Myitsone project is but one instance in a long list of Chinese overseas infrastructure projects plagued by similar opposition.
One suspects that the ambitious One Belt One Road initiative would follow a similar pattern much like what is witnessed in the CPEC project in Pakistan. In fact doubts have persisted about the mandate of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank that China has promoted & the outcome of bank's lending policies irrespective of China taking pains to dispe such doubts.
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Yoshimichi Moriyama Sep 15, 2016

"Myanmar faced crippling United States-led sanctions" reminds me of George F. Kennan's unbalanced "legalism and moralism" in American foreign policy, which is often the cause of chaos rather than of stability, peace and prosperity as here in Myanmar.
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Jen PeiWeng Sep 14, 2016

No matter what Mr. Chellanney had introduced or hinted are intending to discourage the cooperation between Myanmar and China and are leading to the closure of China involvement in Myanmar.

Yes! It is true that China has its own strategic objectives whatever China involved in Myanmar. Unfortunately it is not to India’s favour.
But what will left behind once Myanmar stopped the cooperation with China where China has had been the only country consistently providing help to Myanmar since?

Everything stagnated! Back to the jungle!

As nobody, US did not, Japan did not, India has no intention, give any help to Myanmar up to this very moment although US open the door for Myanmar since 2012 but China.
- Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Sep 16, 2016
  
  China was the only government offering 'any help' to Myanmar because it was isolated by all other countries due to its criminal and blood thirsty junta. It meant the People's Republic of China could exploit and extract anything in the country as cheaply as possible.
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Jen PeiWeng Sep 14, 2016

No matter what Mr. Chellanney had introduced or hinted are intending to discourage the cooperation between Myanmar and China and are leading to the closure of China involvement in Myanmar.

Yes! It is true that China has its own strategic objectives whatever China involved in Myanmar. Unfortunately it is not to India’s favour.
But what will left behind once Myanmar stopped the cooperation with China where China has had been the only country consistently providing help to Myanmar since?

Everything stagnated! Back to the jungle!

As nobody, US did not, Japan did not, India has no intention, give any help to Myanmar up to this very moment although US open the door for Myanmar since 2012 but China.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 13, 2016

Brahma Chellaney once again sees China's ambition in Myanmar as a challenge to "India’s advantage around the Indian Ocean." He speaks of Beijing's various projects in Myanmar - among others the Myitsone dam on the Irrawaddy, the country's most important water resource and spiritual bloodline - that China began in 2009. Due to growing public opposition, the project was put on hold in 2011, creating a major source of friction between China and Myanmar. The campaign against the construction brought together conservationists, scholars, and political activists including Aung San Suu Kyi.
A month ago Myanmar's leader, Aung Sang Suu Kyi was in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders. Top of the agenda was inevitably the restart of the Myitsone project, which was jointly developed by China and Myanmar, and scheduled for completion in 2019. The dam would have created a reservoir the size of Singapore - some 766 sq km (296 square miles) - with the vast bulk of the electricity generated - some 30 billion kW hours annually - being destined for export to China. Beijing aimed to develop and industrialise the Chinese province of Yunnan. At 152 metres high the Myitsone was to be the largest of seven dams at the headwaters of the Irrawaddy. If completed, it will be the 15th largest dam in the world.
China's problem is that Myanmar is no longer the pariah state under the rule of an oppressive military junta from 1962 to 2011. A gradual liberalisation process has been under way since 2010. The country is expected to see a major shift after the government changed hands early in 2016, with Aung Sang Suu Kyi at the helm. But she seemed send a signal that her foreign policy would be more friendly toward China, which is eager to strengthen its foothold in the country, with its rich mineral desposits.
China views Myanmar as a strategic asset, with its long shoreline that would offer China access to the Indian Ocean - a shortcut for oil and gas imports from the Middle East and "a shorter, cheaper trade route to Europe." The author sees it as a threat to India, because of China's presence in the the Kyaukpyu port on the Bay of Bengal, enabling it to establish a sphere of influence on the mainland of Southeast Asia.
The author shouldn't see Myanmar's new foreign policy through the prism of India. It is true that Suu Kyi was opposed to the project in 2011, due to the environmental impact it would have on the nation's main artery, the Irrawaddy. It is equally true that she has "tasked a 20-member commission to review" the suspension decision and look at other hydro-electric power projects. But it is most likely that China and Myanmar would agree on other projects instead to ease tensions and find a win-win solution. Beijing might accept to play a role as mediator in the armed conflicts that had engulfed the region. Two groups in northern Myanmar near the Chinese border - the Kachin and the Wa, who are ethnic Chinese and armed by China - refused to sign a cease-fire agreement last year. At the time, a Burmese government negotiator said China had pressured the two groups not to sign the deal in order to wield more influence over them. Auug San Suu Kyi must use her political acumen and diplomatic skills to appease China, while remaining vigilant that China is not too overbearing. So things may turn out quite different from what the author anticipates.
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Godfree Roberts Sep 13, 2016

'Myanmar’s reversal on the Myitsone Dam became a watershed moment for the country’s democratic transition. It helped to bring an end to Myanmar’s international isolation, and an easing of the long-standing Western sanctions that made Myanmar so dependent on China in the first place. In 2012, Barack Obama became the first US president ever to visit Myanmar.'
That's a cute way of saying that the Myanmar government cancelled the dam, Japan and the US would open their aid spigots. In return for giving up something the country desperately needed, the country would get something else it needed even more desperately.
The US has been busily blocking China's involvement in every country on earth, including the US itself, the UK and Australia.
But its activities are futile and, ultimately, self-defeating.
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Bei De Zhu Sep 12, 2016

Certainly contracts are written to be broken, long as the breaching party pays damages. China is the only party that can help broker longlasting peace between the Bermans (60% dwelling the the south and West), and the many other ethnic minority factions. The choice is that of the Bermese government. Honor the contracts, or risk generations of no turmoil.
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David Morgan Sep 12, 2016

As China needs the dam and it is apparrent that Myanmar needs the electricity perhaps a compromise could be made where Myanmar gets a higher proportion of the electricity generated and also try to mitigate the envenronmental damage caused or at least compensation might be an option.
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Pradeep Taneja Sep 12, 2016

Very informative piece. But how can the author be sure that the decision on "the Myitsone project will not be reversed." It would be good to see some analysis to support that claim.
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Walter Gingery Sep 12, 2016

Thanks for the bulletin. No doubt the Burmese are aware of Chinese bullying in the South China Sea over this very issue of resource monopolization.
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