Yen Bloomberg/Getty Images

从依赖债务推增长转向依靠净股权资产创增值

香港— 诸多最新评论警告中国债务激增,从2008年占GDP的148%增加到2015年三季度末的249%。许多人焦虑地指出,中国债务已经堪与欧盟(占GDP的270%)和美国(占GDP的248%)相当。他们的担忧正确吗?

在某种程度上是正确的。但尽管观察家们的担心并非完全毫无根据,敲响系统风险警报仍为时尚早。最新的汇丰银行报告指出,近期中国债务的迅速积累主要集中在公司和地方政府层面,整体情况并不像许多人所认为的那样危险。

首先,中国有非常高的储蓄率——在过去十年中超过45%,远远高于发达经济体——这使得它能够维持较高的债务水平。此外,中国银行系统仍是家庭部门储蓄的主要渠道,这意味着这些储蓄通过银行贷款支持公司投资,而不是用于股权融资(股权融资只占净投资的5%左右)。事实上,债务占GDP之比的上升有相当部分可归因于中国股权资本市场的相对不发达。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/SRbTsW3/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.