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从依赖债务推增长转向依靠净股权资产创增值

香港— 诸多最新评论警告中国债务激增,从2008年占GDP的148%增加到2015年三季度末的249%。许多人焦虑地指出,中国债务已经堪与欧盟(占GDP的270%)和美国(占GDP的248%)相当。他们的担忧正确吗?

在某种程度上是正确的。但尽管观察家们的担心并非完全毫无根据,敲响系统风险警报仍为时尚早。最新的汇丰银行报告指出,近期中国债务的迅速积累主要集中在公司和地方政府层面,整体情况并不像许多人所认为的那样危险。

首先,中国有非常高的储蓄率——在过去十年中超过45%,远远高于发达经济体——这使得它能够维持较高的债务水平。此外,中国银行系统仍是家庭部门储蓄的主要渠道,这意味着这些储蓄通过银行贷款支持公司投资,而不是用于股权融资(股权融资只占净投资的5%左右)。事实上,债务占GDP之比的上升有相当部分可归因于中国股权资本市场的相对不发达。

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