benami174_Fatemeh BahramiAnadolu Agency via Getty Images_wang yi iran china

Politics

中国会成为下一任中东霸权吗？

Apr 19, 2021 Shlomo Ben-Ami

特拉维夫—发美国总统拜登宣布他将在9月11日前从阿富汗撤军，结束美国有史以来为时最长的战争。此举表明，美国将从中东全面撤退——这一变化已经持续很长时间了。谁会取美国它在该地区的位置吗？

中国似乎希望如此。就在拜登宣布决定前几周，中国外交部长王毅在德黑兰与伊朗签署了一项为期25年的"全面战略伙伴关系"（CSP）协议，其中包括经济、政治和安全合作。此举引起了美国的关注 ——而且有充分的理由。

是的，CSP是中国的标准外交政策工具。中国已经与包括伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯在内的域内其他国家建立了CSP。一些人很可能夸大了中伊CSP的范围，比如有报道说，其中包括了中国对伊朗的4000亿美元投资。（双方方都没有确认任何具体数字）。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

Takashi Tsushima Apr 20, 2021

I think China power has been stunningly made influence over the globe for more than two decades. China started launching the Belt and Road Initiative on 2013 because China has a tremendous purchasing power backed by much foreign currency reserves with carrying around $1 trillion-worth of US government bonds and keeps enjoying trade surpluses with foreign nations. Apparently with this burgeoning confidence in the economic background, I presume that China holding out for some ambitions related with hegemonic minds would take precedence over its own economic prosperity. Chinese unilateral military ambition in seizing some islets, building military outpost and runway in Spratly islands is prone to become a precarious situation among Southeast nations. One aggressive step by China would draw into an imminent tinder box that the US and Western Navy frigates and carriers sail across Taiwan Strait. Even military attritions mainly with the US, Chinese diplomacy goes around Middle Eastern nations to tie up economic cooperation. And China also does shake hands with Iran for mutual economic assistance, but as long as Iran sticks to its gun about Nuclear development for weaponry, I’m afraid that China will not get the best result out of it. On top of that, I really feel unfortunate about Uighur issue that it will put China on the spot as a disadvantage score. How come does China get along with the former CIS nations such as Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and others, all of which has an ethnic lineage with Uighurs? This might become wholehearted sentiment, but those nations would steal a march on and force their way into businesses with China. While tons of world news media report China’s foreign policy that becomes threatening to economic takeover, nearly making into the sphere of Chinese influence, I doubt it’s so threatening. One of things the media might think it so dangerous is about Chinese-funds diplomacy to target on some nations, which suffers from lack of money to get away with economic malaise. However, that’s a normal norm of business practices. On the other hand, the media hardly report about how real Chinese people might struggle themselves with their own economic status because the government’s censorship is very strict, and fake news might turn out by Media’s exaggerations. It’s certainly not easy to get ordinary Chinese citizens in order to grasp such chances in comparison with the easiness of economic opportunities in cases of developed nations. On the contrary, you might hear it the number of millionaires in China including Hong Kong and Macao: According to estimates of Credit Suisse, there were 4.4 million dollar-millionaires in China, ranking second after the United States in the world.
There are thirty-three provinces (two places are special administrative regions, but excluding Taiwan at this time) consisted of a Great China, and half of them are still in the poverty line, to say the least, that causes to bring about quasi-democratic outcry. There are many assignments to do for China, to fix such an internal economic disparity and make Chinese people unite with proudness each other. I reckon that all of Chinese government already knows what the priority goes first and it’s not really the time to fight off with the US.
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j. von Hettlingen Apr 19, 2021

Shlomo Ben-Ami says Biden’s decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan “was indicative of a broader shift by the United States away from the Middle East – one that has been a long time coming. Will anyone take its place in the region?” China has recently signed a 25-year “comprehensive strategic partnership” (CSP) deal with Iran, just a few weeks before Biden’s announcement. Yet the significance of this economic, political, and security cooperation may well be overrated.
According to the author, China has also forged deeper ties with America’s closest allies in the Middle East, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and even Israel. However, its engagement in the region is driven primarily by economic interests. Apart from “gaining access to the region’s energy resources, China can boost its profile in cutting-edge sectors by cooperating with Israel’s high-tech industries. That is why – much to the annoyance of the US – it has sharply increased its investment in Israel in recent years.”
Israel is part of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” - a global infrastructure development strategy “to advance its connectivity ambitions…. Just as China has already taken control of seaports elsewhere across Asia and Europe, it has established itself at the Israeli port of Haifa. Similarly, anticipating reliance on Iranian oil, China has developed a direct shipping route to the port of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.” Now Iran’s powerful Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, “should also be wary of China. In particular, Hezbollah will need to reconsider its threat to launch a ballistic-missile attack on Israel’s Haifa port, given that China now all but owns it.”
The author says, despite China’s growing role in the Middle East, “the US does not have to worry about – at least for now – China stoking conflict” there. In fact Beijing prefers to steer clear of “a regional conflagration” that would disrupt oil exports to fuel its economic growth and “destroy” its investments and trade interests in the region. Since China has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, it seeks to project itself as “a responsible stakeholder in regional peace.”
Nevertheless China’s ever bigger footprint in the Middle does not signal its “willingness to underwrite security” in the region. Although “the CSP with Iran mentions security cooperation, but it is no military alliance – and China is not taking sides in any military conflict. After all, China also conducts military drills with Iran’s archrival, Saudi Arabia.” It looks most likely that China’s initiatives in the region aim to ruffle US feathers, at a time of growing rivalry between Beijing and Washington.
The timing of the CSP - “just as the Biden administration tries to renegotiate and rejoin the nuclear deal - was a calculated decision by China to strengthen Iran’s bargaining position, thereby, it is hoped, hastening the lifting of sanctions.” Sadly, Iran will “pay a high price for its partnership with China, which has taken advantage of its economic travails to lay claim to a heavily discounted supply of oil. During earlier phases of the CSP negotiations, some Iranians warned that China was seeking an exploitative deal, much like the agreements that ended with it wresting control of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port.”
While safeguarding its interests, China has also been “careful not to be drawn into the region’s long-running conflicts. While China recently suggested that it would host direct talks between Israeli and Palestinian leaders, this should not be given too much credence.” China knew well that it had only US “massive expenditure of blood and treasure” to thank for that it “has been able to expand its economic influence in Afghanistan and Iraq. That is not the kind of investment it is interested in making.”
It is clearly in Beijing’s interests that Israel and the Sunni Arab states remain aligned with the US militarily. Its “economic interests are best served by keeping the Middle East’s established US-led security system intact.” After all, “military alliances are not China’s preferred tool in its global competition” with the US, whose “military superiority in the Middle East will probably remain undisputed for some time.”
According to the author, “military power will not be enough to stem China’s strategic rise in the region (and beyond). For that, the US will also need to boost its political clout, economic engagement, and cultural influence. Otherwise, as Biden put it in February, China will “eat our lunch.” Perhaps Beijing should have a taste of it.
As the Middle East is a tinderbox and China not interested in reconciling the hostility between Iran and Israel, as well as between Iran and Saudi Arabia, its best hope is that its investments are safe in the region. According to Xi Jinping’s speech at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party in October 2017, he signalled a much more active foreign policy and the readiness to defend - in an even more assertive way - Chinese interests, especially “core interests” far away from home. The problem is that any armed conflict could morph into a protracted warfare beyond a country’s control.
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中国会成为下一任中东霸权吗？

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