Garden in China

中国如何改善政策透明度?

香港—中国经济在今年冬天遭遇出人意料的严重伤寒——严重到全球所有市场都因此打了寒战。在2016年的前两周,上证综指下跌18%。1月15日,该指数收于2,901点——接近去年夏天股市大幅波动的低点。海外分析师几乎一致预测将爆发另一场市场崩溃甚至硬着陆。而国际石油价格也下跌到每桶28美元,全球经济传染病的幽灵开始浮现。

中国的新年金融市场冲击可归因于几个因素,主要与政策清晰度及其执行过程的透明度不够有关。其一是中国叫停了股市“熔断机制”,该机制不仅没能遏制波动,反而刺激了新一轮抛售潮。另一个问题——也许是更严重的挑战——是市场搞不懂人民币汇率的变动方向,人民币兑美元汇率经历了连续十天的逐渐贬值,这个短期的趋势刺激了资本外流,直到央行出手干预。

据央行的说法,新年前后的贬值主要源于人民币汇率机制的一个技术性改变,即人民币汇率从之前的维持与美元的汇率稳定转向以维持与一揽子货币的汇率稳定(官方没有正式公开一揽子货币成分 ) 。这一改革本意是为了增强人民币的稳定性,特别是在美元相对其它货币大幅升值的时候;但这个变化对市场冲击不小,市场更喜欢人民币兑美元汇率的稳定,而不愿面对参照一揽子货币的有管理的浮动汇率的不确定性。

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