中国城市的新常态

香港—几十年来,城市化的快速发展使中国出现了一批知识和制造业集中的大都会,它们大多坐落在能很好地与全球经济相连的区域。但这一增长模式已经达到了极限。2013年中国城市居民人口比例达到了53%,而1981年仅为20%,这表明中国正在进入一个城市化、工业化、信息化、现代化市场经济的“新常态”。国家主席习近平指出,新常态的目标是确保年经济增长在7%左右,以高附加值制造、信息技术和现代化农业生产的新机遇为增长驱动力。

但是,在向这一目标迈进的过程中,中国将面临困难的资产负债表的结构调整,这一调整无法仅仅依靠传统财政和货币政策来轻松解决。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)新的研究报告指出,去年中国300个城市土地出让金收入下降了37%——相当大的降幅,而土地出售占地方政府收入的比例占35%。更重要的是,2009—2013年间,土地出让金收入以平均每年24%的超高速度增长。

此外,去年12月年度消费者和生产者通胀率分别下降到1.5%和-3.3%,部分原因是全球油价暴跌。如今,中国面临着通缩和不利的外部经济环境,其以城市为中心的经济也在偿债能力、流动性和结构调整等复杂的挑战中互动与挣扎。

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