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Economics

الصين في مواجهة الانهيار الديموغرافي

Feb 14, 2023 Yi Fuxian

ماديسون، ويسكونسن - لقد دفع تراجع عدد سكان الصين، الذي أكدته الحكومة الصينية رسميًا في يناير/كانون الثاني الماضي، العديد من المراقبين إلى التساؤل عما إذا كانت الاتجاهات الديموغرافية الحالية في البلاد تهدد استقرارها.

وذكر المكتب الوطني للإحصاء أن عدد سكان الصين انخفض العام الماضي للمرة الأولى منذ 60 عامًا، أي قبل تسع سنوات من توقعات الحكومة. وقد انخفض معدل الخصوبة (المواليد لكل امرأة) إلى 1.0-1.1، وهو أقل بكثير من التوقعات الرسمية البالغة 1.8. والجدير بالذكر أن عدد المواليد انخفض بشكل حاد إلى 9.56 مليون، وهو أقل عدد منذ عام 1790، على الرغم من اعتماد الصين سياسة إنجاب طفلين في عام 2016.

ومع ذلك، يُعد هذا الانخفاض الحاد في عدد المواليد مجرد وهم ناتج عن مبالغة جسيمة في معدلات ما قبل عام 2020. على سبيل المثال، أظهرت دراسة استقصائية في عام 2016 معدل خصوبة لا يتجاوز 1.25 و 13 مليون ولادة، ثم ارتفعت هذه النسبة لاحقًا لتصل إلى 18.83 مليون ولادة. وعلى نحو مماثل، كان تقرير التوقعات السكانية في العالم الصادر عن الأمم المتحدة، والذي يُعتبر عادةً مصدرًا موثوقًا لتقديرات وتوقعات الاتجاهات الديموغرافية الصينية، خاطئًا في كل مرة، ودون أي استثناء. يُشير تقرير التوقعات السكانية العالمية لعام 2022 إلى أن عدد سكان الصين بدأ في التراجع في العام الماضي (قبل عشر سنوات من توقعاته لعام 2019)، بينما أُقدر أن الانخفاض بدأ في عام 2018. كما توقعت أحدث تقارير التوقعات السكانية في العالم أيضًا أن ينخفض عدد سكان الصين إلى 767 مليون نسمة في عام 2100، أي أقل بكثير من توقعاتها السابقة البالغة 1.065 مليار نسمة.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Peter Schaeffer Feb 19, 2023

The reality is that China is rising and the US/Europe are falling. The US was 40% of GDP in 1960 and 24% in 2019. See https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-share-of-global-economy-over-time/. These numbers appear to be nominal GDP (not PPP) based. China was just 4% of global GDP in 1960. By 2019, China reached 16.3% of global GDP. Of course, Europe is in decline. See "Europe on the wane " (https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-on-the-wane-global-economics-demographics-gdp/) for some numbers.

In the West 2+2 is now 'white racism'. In China, 2+2 is still 4. See "As US Schools Prioritize Diversity Over Merit, China Is Becoming the World’s STEM Leader" (https://quillette.com/2021/08/19/as-us-schools-prioritize-diversity-over-merit-china-is-becoming-the-worlds-stem-leader/). The quantitative data supports this conclusion as well. See "China’s rise as a major contributor to science and technology" (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1407709111). The PNAS article is from 2014. Since then, China has become the number one producer of scientific papers. See https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Science/China-passes-US-as-world-s-top-researcher-showing-its-R-D-might for some data.

The reality is that liberal democracy in the West is in deep decline and authoritarian states are on the rise. China passed the US in GDP years ago and hasn’t looked back. For better or worse, authoritarian China is a rising power and ‘woke’ America is a declining power. I have a single line that summarizes the decline of the USA and the rise of China.

“China is very good at building dams, the US is very good at enforcing PC. Which system will prevail in the 21st century?”.
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Waleed Addas Feb 19, 2023

China bashing is counterproductive. There is a famous saying, “don’t bite the hand that feeds you, clothes you” and much more! Almost every stuff we buy is “made in China”….
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Susan Robinson Feb 18, 2023

Some of the lowest fertility rates:
South Korea = 0.9
Singapore = 1.1
Spain = 1.2
Italy = 1.3
Japan = 1.3
China = 1.7

Just compare the above figures...
China's population is 1.4 billion with fertility rate 1.7
South Korea's population is 52 million with fertility rate 0.9
Singapore's population is 5 million with fertility rate 1.1
Which country is dying out fast?
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Michael Smitka Feb 16, 2023

As you carefully argue, it is certainly unrealistic to think that China can change fertility preferences much over the coming decade.

However, you really should add the implications of demographic momentum, which for the next few decades renders the focus on fertility moot.

We know that the number of girls born in 2022 was almost half the number in their mothers' generation. That means that in 2045, as today's infants enter peak childbearing years, the number of potential mothers will be roughly half that of today. Even if today's girls raise larger families, their own daughters won't hit their peak childbearing years until after 2065. Population could then start stabilizing at a new, lower level. A bit of effort with spreadsheets – overall population will depend on how long grandparents and great-grandparents live – shows that even if your fertility arguments prove wrong (against all the evidence you provide), China still faces at least 40 years of population decline.

PS I taught an undergraduate course on China's economy from 1987 through 2018. It was clear by 1995 that China's population would start declining in the 2020s at the latest. As I learned over decades of teaching (my other teaching focus was Japan), demographics – that today's birthrates place tight upper and lower limits on what will happen 20 years hence – is not intuitive, but is readily teachable.
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Susan Rockwell Feb 15, 2023

“Women…will ultimately pay the price for this painful demographic shift.” As if they don’t pay the price for patriarchal (misogynistic) authoritarianism that created this development? Please. Today’s economic problems are more complicated than “the state-owned vessels aren’t birthing babies!” The world needs female economists.
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Mirek Fatyga Feb 14, 2023

quoting Yogi Berra (and others) "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Societies can respond to changing conditions. Even if the fertility rate stays low for a while longer, I am not sure why we would believe that the US with 330 million people is a healthy society, while China with ~400 million would be dying?

The countries I would be worried about are countries like India, or even more so Pakistan with the fertility rate of 3.5, unable to feed their population or keep the lights on for that matter.

The XXth century population explosion created an unsustainable situation which may be partly reversing itself because societies can't properly support these large populations (hence young people do not want to have children ,they can't afford them). To be sure, ageing of the society is a challenge. It should be viewed as such, a challenge to be dealt with, rather than an impending catastrophe.

If one wanted to extend North American use of oil per capita to 8 billion people, world production of oil would have to increase by ~600%. To the EU level, by ~300%. This is just one resource, illustrating the scope of the problem.
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الصين في مواجهة الانهيار الديموغرافي

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