中国没问题

纽黑文—对中国经济可能出现硬着陆的担忧一日深过一日。在过去一年中,中国股市下跌了20%,下探2009年以来的低点。最新数据的持续疲软——不管是采购经理人情绪指标还是工业产出、零售额和出口——更是让不安显露无疑。许多人担心,长期以来一直是全球经济最有力引擎的中国正在失去燃料。

这样的担心有些过了。是的,中国经济有所放缓。但这种放缓已经被消化了,并且极有可能是在可预见的未来的最低点。软着陆的基本面依然十分坚挺。

中国硬着陆的特征因2008—2009年大衰退期间而众人皆知。当是时,中国年GDP增长率出现了大幅下滑,从2007年二季度14.8%的峰值下落至2009年一季度的6.6%。2009年令全球贸易量创出历史跌幅记录(10.5%)的可怕外部需求冲击导致中国的出口导向型经济迅速地从繁荣走向了破灭。随后,中国失衡经济中的其他部门也受到了打击,特别是劳动力市场,光是广东省就减少了2000万个工作岗位。

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