Chinese parliament Feng Li/Getty Images

中国的投资统计之谜

上海—中国的GDP及其增长率数据在国际上频遭质疑已司空见惯,但很少有人质疑中国官方关于投资数据的可靠性。除了投资之外,即便是针对GDP构成中的家庭消费支出的统计,质疑者也寥寥无几。

根据国家统计局(NBS)公布的数据,多年来中国的平均资本形成率(总资本形成占GDP的比重)约为46%。这一数据当然高于几乎世界上所有的国家,更大大高于世界平均水平(约22%)。但可以肯定的是,即使这样,这个数据仍明显低于中国各省资本形成率的平均值。以2012年为例,有近一半省份的资本形成率在当年超过了60%,有6个省份的资本形成率甚至超过80%,达到了不可思议的水平。国家统计局的资本形成率难道不是来自于地方的统计上报?难道国家统计局有对全国投资活动的独立核算渠道?

据我所知,至少在国家统计局最近推行全国投资统计改革试点之前,并不存在独立的渠道获得和掌握全国投资活动的数据。事实上,国家统计局公布的用来反映投资活动的基本数据,也就是“全社会固定资产投资”的数据,全然来自各省的投资数据的加总。既然这样,那国家统计局的“资本形成”数据--用支出法核算GDP的构成之一--是否也应该来自地方数据的加总呢?如果不是,那到底它从何而来?

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