chellaney151_ Yawar NazirGetty Images_india china border dispute

صراع الجبابرة في آسيا

May 19, 2022 Brahma Chellaney

نيودلهي ــ مع تركز الاهتمام العالمي على الحرب التي تشنها روسيا في أوكرانيا، سقطت إلى حد كبير عن رادار المجتمع الدولي محاولات التوسع الإقليمي التي تبذلها الصين في آسيا ــ وخاصة نزاعها الحدودي المتزايد التوسع مع الهند. مع ذلك، في المرتفعات الجليدية الشاسعة في منطقة الهيمالايا، كان اثنان من عمالقة العالم الديموغرافية على أهبة الاستعداد للحرب لأكثر من عامين، وتتعاظم احتمالات وقوع اشتباكات عنيفة بمرور كل يوم تقريبا.

بدأت المواجهة في مايو/أيار 2020. عندما تسبب ذوبان الجليد في إعادة فتح طرق الوصول بعد شتاء قاس، صُـدِمَـت الهند عندما اكتشفت أن جيش التحرير الشعبي احتل خِـلسة مئات الأميال المربعة من الأراضي الحدودية في منطقة لاداخ التابعة لها. أشعل هذا شرارة سلسلة من المناوشات، التي أسفرت عن أولى الوفيات في معارك بين جنود الصين منذ أكثر من أربعة عقود من الزمن، وأفضى إلى أسرع حشد لقوات متنافسة في منطقة الهيمالايا على الإطلاق.

نجحت الهجمات المضادة التي شنتها الهند في دفع قوات جيش التحرير الشعبي إلى الانسحاب من بعض المناطق، واتفق الجانبان على تحويل اثنتين من ساحات القتال إلى منطقتين عازلتين. ولكن على مدار الأشهر الخمسة عشر الأخيرة، لم يتحقق سوى أقل قدر من التقدم نحو نزع فتيل التوترات في مناطق أخرى. ومع تواجد عشرات الآلاف من القوات الصينية والهندية في وضع التأهب عمليا على طول الحدود المتنازع عليها منذ فترة طويلة، نشأت ورطة عسكرية.

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China's Global Hybrid War Politics
Feature ChinaBarcroft Media via Getty Images

China's Global Hybrid War

Brahma Chellaney shows how the country is using “lawfare” to expand its maritime and land boundaries without firing a shot.

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China’s Himalayan Salami Tactics Politics
Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

China’s Himalayan Salami Tactics

Brahma Chellaney shows how President Xi Jinping is applying his maritime expansion strategy to disputed mountain borderlands.

9
Who Lost the South China Sea? Politics
Feng Li/Getty Images

Who Lost the South China Sea?

Brahma Chellaney blames successive US administrations for a feckless response to Chinese expansionism.

14
India’s Appeasement Policy Toward China Unravels Politics
Arvind Yadav/Hindustan Times via Getty Images

India’s Appeasement Policy Toward China Unravels

Brahma Chellaney criticizes the Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his stubborn strategic naiveté.

8
The Quad at a Crossroads Politics
Sarahbeth Maney/Pool/Getty Images

The Quad at a Crossroads

Brahma Chellaney urges the group's members to focus on its core purpose – ensuring a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

1
The Quad Sharpens Its Edges Politics
Kiyoshi Ota/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

The Quad Sharpens Its Edges

Brahma Chellaney sees progress toward a more formal Indo-Pacific alliance accelerating in response to Chinese aggression.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 23 Comments on this article

F Ahmed May 30, 2022

Chellaney come on - this is just another state like India manifesting "might is right". Wonder if you will ever have something to say to the ravaged brutalized Kashmiris that India continues to occupy and kill, flouting United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Self-selected notions of international law, injustice and violent transgressions are contagious.
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Leto Atreides May 22, 2022

We still know very little of what exactly happened at the border. What was reported in the English media has been almost exclusively the Indian side of the story, which must be taken with a pinch of salt in the absence of verifiable claims. Some earlier reports from Indian media did note that Chinese actions seemed to be in response to Indian constructions of roads and infrastructure close to the disputed border, which would enable India to send troops to the border much more quickly. China responded by occupying a vantage point at the Galwan valley overlooking the road construction. Constructions near the disputed border are exactly what the author is accusing China of doing which changes the status quo and threatens India. It seems that what China has been doing is to not cede its advantage at the disputed border, while India is intent on neutralizing the Chinese advantage. To China, the border conflict with India is not about resources or expanding its influences, unlike the South China Sea. This is a classic case of border conflicts between nations that could have been solved with cool heads instead of exacerbated by nationalistic sentiments. To frame such a border conflict as a fight between democracy and autocracy is misleading and ignores the fact that under Modi, India is becoming an illiberal democracy itself, while the US has largely turned a blind to the development because US needs India to contain China.
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Neil MacLean May 22, 2022

I'd like to think the author is correct in his assertion that China will find the cost of its aggression will exceed its benefits. And I appreciate the author's willingness to state Mr Modi's weaknesses. At the same time I find it odd there is no mention of Pakistan which is surely a piece of the puzzle of what's happening. Modi's toxic aggression toward his Islamic minority is hugely saddening to me as I have had a lot of affection for the India of Ghandi and Nehru etc. I hate what I see happening there domestically in recent years. Then you have Modi's heavy handed dealings in Kashmir again being unfair to Islamic people. Meanwhile China has created ever deeper and more powerful economic links with Pakistan. I don't know a lot about affairs in this part of the world but it seems to me there must be important connections among all these things. How is Mr Modi helping his country's relations with the Middle East, with Indonesia? It seems to me that Mr Modi's toxic domestic policies cannot be strengthening his hand. At the same time, Chinese aggresions seems really foolhardy to me. How will this offer comfort to Vietnam, Korea, Thailand, etc? China has long made much of its respect for territorial integrity but that increasingly seems utter nonsense in its embrace of Mr Putin and its behaviour on the Indian and Bhutan borders. I'd guess the existence of a strong Communist party in Nepal having broad support may somewhat inhibit the Chinese as equally atrocious behaviour there could greatly reduce support for its preferred party. As a Canadian I am only too aware of Chinese thug diplomacy.
- R H May 22, 2022
  
  You may check out the impact of minority dominated activities in WEST BENGAL. Decades Of genocidal behavior inKashmir has never been highlighted in the global Western dominated narrative. The Lutyens Delhi proselytizing of issues in india is very self serving and blindsided.
  The world doesn’t exist only in the drawing rooms of Delhi. This is where a large part of the perceptions broadcast globally is Written in the English speaking press.
  - Neil MacLean May 22, 2022
    
    I don't think revenge politics is excusable. And not being from the area does not associate me with years of earlier historic oppression. I'm just not on team Modi.
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gmhassan May 22, 2022

Unfortunately, I find the author's tone is about how India & China should fight than becoming friends. I think it is in India's security interest and advantage to keep a good term with neighbours and avoid conflict rather than depending on the West to give it security from thousands of miles away. There is no harm in Modi's befriending Xi.
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Mark St. Angelo May 19, 2022

The author’s conclusion that “Xi has picked a border fight that he cannot win” appears to be inconsistent with the facts recited by the author regarding China’s construction of villages, roads and bridges in the territory seized by China.
- Harsh Ray May 20, 2022
  
  You may have not read the full piece. As the author says later in his piece, "The price China will pay for Xi’s mistake will far outweigh the perceived benefits of some stealthy land grabs."
  - F Ahmed May 30, 2022
    
    Wishful thinking at best.
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Harsh Ray May 19, 2022

It's not an increasingly autocratic Ukraine but India, the world's largest democracy, that is truly on the frontlines of the struggle between democracies and autocracies.
- Henry Rech May 27, 2022
  
  Interesting observation.
  - F Ahmed May 30, 2022
    
    Indeed on the frontlines of repression and hate against minorities and on new heights of brutality in its occupation over Kashmir.
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صراع الجبابرة في آسيا

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China's Global Hybrid War

China’s Himalayan Salami Tactics

Who Lost the South China Sea?

India’s Appeasement Policy Toward China Unravels

The Quad at a Crossroads

The Quad Sharpens Its Edges

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