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yu36_Kevin Frayer_Stringer Kevin Frayer/Stringer

不完整的中国增长战略

北京—中国增长放缓已经六年——远远长于预期。渴望遏制颓势的中国政府官员和经济学家急切地试图进行明确的解释,从而找到有效政策应对。去年11月,他们正式将矛头指向了长期供给端缺陷,并承诺用深刻的结构改革解决这些缺陷。

但是,尽管中国官员承诺实施痛苦——也是急需——的结构改革值得赞赏,但聚焦于供给端在很大程度上忽略了当下。中国面临两个不同的挑战:潜在增长率下滑的长期问题和实际增长低于潜在水平的当务之急。

制约潜在增长的长期因素是规模回报递减、收入差距扩大和通过模仿进行技术赶超的空间缩小。此外,即使人口红利消失,其承载力(环境可以维持的人口规模)正在耗竭——显然高污染进一步加剧了这一状况。最后也是最重要的,中国正饱受市场改革进展不足之苦。

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