Tourism venue in China

A Ilusão da China

NOVA IORQUE – A gestão da China da sua indexação da taxa de câmbio continua a confundir os mercados financeiros globais. A incerteza existente relativamente à desvalorização renminbi está a alimentar os receios de que forças deflacionárias invadam os mercados emergentes e dêem uma forte machadada nas economias desenvolvidas, onde as taxas de juro se encontram a zero ou perto deste valor (não podendo, por conseguinte, ser reduzidas a fim de assegurar a protecção contra a inflação importada). O impasse fiscal na Europa e nos EUA está a contribuir para aumentar aumentando a ansiedade.

Mas o actual período de ansiedade das taxas de câmbio é na realidade apenas um sintoma do facto de a transição, por parte da China, de uma estratégia de crescimento baseada na exportação para uma estratégia impulsionada pelo consumo interno estar a progredir de forma menos harmoniosa do que o esperado.

Para algumas pessoas, o sonho das maravilhas do capitalismo com características chinesas permanece inalterado. Estão convictas de que, decorridas mais de três décadas de crescimento orientado pelo Estado, os líderes da China sabem o que fazer para inverter a situação de desmoronamento da sua economia.

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