Tourism venue in China

Die chinesische Täuschung

NEW YORK – Die chinesische Regulierung der Währungsbindung des Landes sorgt auf den globalen Finanzmärkten weiterhin für Unruhe. Die andauernde Unsicherheit über eine eventuelle Abwertung des Renminbi führt zur Sorge über eine Deflation in den Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern und zu negativen Auswirkungen auf die Industriestaaten, wo die Zinsen in der Nähe des Nullpunkts liegen (und demnach zur Verteidigung gegen eine importierte Deflation nicht weiter gesenkt werden können). Verstärkt wird die Angst noch durch die fiskale Blockade in Europa und in den Vereinigten Staaten.

Aber in Wirklichkeit ist der aktuelle Anfall von Wechselkurspanik lediglich ein Symptom der Tatsache, dass Chinas Wandel von einer exportorientierten hin zu einer durch Inlandskonsum bestimmten Wachstumsstrategie viel weniger glatt verläuft als erhofft.

Einige werden auch weiterhin an die Wunder des Kapitalismus chinesischer Ausprägung glauben. Sie werden auch glauben, dass die chinesische Führung nach über drei Jahrzehnten staatlich gelenkten Wachstums weiß, wie sie ihre stockende Wirtschaft wieder ankurbeln kann.

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