Thousands of Chinese travellers rush to buy their train tickets at the railway station in Beijing STR/AFP/Getty Images

中国真能取代美国的经济霸权吗?

坎布里奇—中国和美国正在进行最新一轮贸易纠葛,大部分经济学家理所当然地认为,从长期看中国将实现全球经济支配,不管现在的情况怎样。毕竟,中国人口是美国的四倍,在经历了几个世纪的技术停滞后痛下决心要实现赶超,因此,中国决定性地接过经济霸权的大王旗是不可避免的吗?

我没有那么确定,许多经济学家,包括很多将中国庞大的劳动力视为决定性优势的经济学家,同时也担心机器人和人工智能最终将接管大部分岗位,而大部分人类将把时间用在休闲活动上。

到底会怎样?一百年后谁会接管?中国工人还是机器人?如果机器人和人工智能成为下个世纪生产的主要推动力,也许有太多人口需要照顾——特别是同时还需要通过限制互联网和信息渠道来实现控制——对中国更多地是一个阻碍因素。中国人口的迅速老龄化则加剧了这一挑战。

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