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去全球化的中国变数

Jul 25, 2022 Stephen S. Roach

发自纽黑文——冷战后时代广受赞誉的全球化进程如今正在反向运行。与新冠疫情相关的供应链中断、中美贸易战的持续压力以及将跨境经济关系与地缘战略联盟（“友岸外包”）相结合的举措强化了全球贸易的长期放缓趋势。对于中国这个堪称现代全球化最大受益者的国家来说，这些事态发展简直就是在卡脖子。

在包括金融、信息和劳动力流动等众多全球化指标中，货物和服务的跨境交流与经济增长关系最为密切。也是基于这个原因，始于2008~2009年全球金融危机并在新冠时代加剧的全球贸易放缓预示了全球化的巨大变化。全球出口额相对世界GDP的比率一度从1990年的19%爬升到2008年的顶峰（31%），但在随后13年间（2009~2021）平均仅为28.7%。倘若世界出口能以6.4%的速度增长（介于1990~2008年9.4%的高速增长和2008年后3.3%的低迷增长之间），那么2021年时出口相对全球GDP的比率将飙升至46%，远高于29%的实际值。

中国从贸易全球化中获得了极其巨大的收益。中国的出口在2001年加入世界贸易组织前那十年里平均只占世界总出口的2%，而该比率在2008年时已经上升了近4倍，达到7.5%。中国加入世贸组织的时机极佳——恰逢全球贸易周期处于一个重要上升期。虽然金融危机阻碍了中国的出口势头，但这种中断极为短暂。到2021年中国出口占全世界的比率已飙升至12.7%，远高于2008年之前的峰值。

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Stephen S. Roach

Writing for PS since 2011
145 Commentaries

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (Yale University Press, 2014) and the forthcoming Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale University Press, November 2022).

What Justifies China’s Zero-COVID Policy?
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Politics 1

What Justifies China’s Zero-COVID Policy?

Zhang Jun defends the goals and principles underpinning a strategy that has led to a six-week lockdown in Shanghai.
Only China Can Stop Russia
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Politics 22

Only China Can Stop Russia

Stephen S. Roach thinks President Xi Jinping will need to revisit the cooperation agreement he forged with Vladimir Putin.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 17 Comments on this article

D. V. Gendre Aug 3, 2022

Very excellent article.
Indeed China has much to lose but everything is relative. China will have a bigger economy and military force in the future then the US and crippled EU combined. The technological advantage is now in favour of China and since 2019 it has overtaken the US with patent applications. A technological dynamic is unfolding. Many profits of Western companies are not only earned through cheap imports from China but are actually earned directly by exporting goods to the worlds biggest single market.
Then the West relies on huge quantities of credit (often financed through those who have money, i. e. China). Even a small contraction in credit is therefore devastating for the West and can trigger a domino effect and let its finance of governments, subsidies, welfare state etc. collapse. The slightes decrease in wealth could trigger enormous pressure on Western societies. As in the case of Russia, China can rely to blame the West for troubles and slowing economic activities which will unify the population behind the party. I agree with everything in the article but I would not bet on its conclusion.
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Boris Dirnbach Aug 1, 2022

Not to quibble but the 2% rate increased by almost 300% (actually, 275%) to get to 7.5%, not 400%. For 2 to increase by 4-times (400%) the end result would be 10. That said, Prof. Roach's articles are always a pleasure to read.
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Peter McLoughlin Jul 27, 2022

The “new war in Europe” has all the signs of conflagrating into a new world war, in a number of interconnected theaters, but primarily driven by the struggle between Washington and Beijing for global hegemony.
https://patternofhistory.wordpress.com/
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vic lai Jul 26, 2022

So far as the US's coming "friend-shoring" is concerned, this time is really different, because no other US-friendly countries that are going to replace China as the main exporter to the US can resemble China.
This is because, only China can
(i) provide such a lavish total amount of exports tax rebates (approxinmately one trillion Chinese yuan yearly) to China's exporters exporting goods to the US and the rest of the world, year-in and year-out, which in essence means a yearly transfer of a large part of China's government tax revenues to the bank savings accounts of the US consumers and the consumers elsewhere,
(ii) have such a hard-working labor force, willing to work 996 (from 9am to 9pm every day, 6 days a week), with almost no labor strikes,
(iii) disallow the setting up of labor unions in her country,
(iv) have such a reliable and ample supply of rural workers,
(v) provide such an advanced background of infrastructure facilities, like reliable electricity and water supply, and efficient transportation and communication network, to help much lower the overall manufacturing costs of the US's ODIs in the country.
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Which means, if US's friend-shoring is in full force sometime in the future, the structural CPI inflation rate in the US, adversely affected by much higher prices of imported merchandises and components then, will be pushed up to a much higher level than today's.
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Some merchandises produced by the US's ODIs in China, like Tesla's electric cars manufactured and assembled in Shanghai's mega-factory, to be sold in China, can't be "friend-shored," because the back-to-China transportation costs of the heavy and bulgy vehicles would be prohibitively high.
China may also counteract by imposing heavy import tariffs on US ODI's friend-producing goods that are re-exported back to China, thereby resulting in a heavy loss of global market share imposed on the US ODIs.
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- vic lai Jul 29, 2022
  
  (vi) Only China can practice strict pandemic lockdowns, even in her major ciites like Shanghai, which enables the country to recover quickly and so to maintain the overall smooth running of her domestic total supply chains, constantly supplying exports to the West, thereby helping lowering the otherwise even higher inflation rates in the West.
  Today, most western countries are experiencing trade deficits, month-in and month-out, including even the traditional exports powerhouses of Germany and Japan, because
  (a) most of the resource-exporting countries are having massive trade surpluses, and
  (b) the relatively lax pandemic lockdown policies in the West, or the lack thereof, have kept the infection rates in the West at relatively high levels, adversely affecting the health of the infected workers there, forcing them to stop working, staying at home, or choosing not to go back to their workplaces yet, and so also obstructing the otherwise smooth running of their own inter-related supply chains.
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- vic lai Jul 26, 2022
  
  As things are going now, the US is soon going to be overtaken by China technologically, economically, and militarily, long before the middle of this century, according to Richard Duncan.
  If, long before the middle of this century, China becomes the genuine global leader in artificial general intelligence, powered by her also-world-leading quantum computing and nuclear-fusion energy, then China's intelligence capacity will expand exponentially, leaving all of her rivals in the dirt.
  If so, it will be game over for the rest of the world, including the US, since it will be the 21st century equivalent of China's having a 20th century nuclear monopoly.
  ---
  And so, long before 2050, today's US-instigated global friend-shoring away from China will turn into China-instigated friend-shoring away from the US, US dollar global hegemony will be replaced by yuan global hegemony, Pax Americana will be replaced by Pax Sinica, and so the first century of Pax Americana starting from 1945 will also be the last.
  Which means, by mid-century, the US will be a second rate vulnerable has-been global power, if today she doesn't mass-invest in real technologies through the help of Fed-QE-financed massive increases in government expenditures and widespread PPP real investment projects.
  ---
  - P. Kamath Jul 26, 2022
    
    Vic Lai: Your admiration for China and prediction about it is just overwhelming ! Who knows it may turnout to be the true Middle Kingdom . Outsiders visiting Beijing May even expected to bear gifts and learn how kow-tow too 🤗 !
    - vic lai Jul 26, 2022
      
      Just consider artificial intelligence (AI).
      My feeling is that, today the chance of either the US or China emerging as the eventual winner in this competitive marathon game is still 50-50.
      ---
      The US has an obvious comparative advantage in developing and using the most advanced AI chips, while China lacks behind, owing to the US's sanctions on Huawei and the US-imposed restrictions of foreign supply of EUVs or even DUVs to China.
      It seems China has recently successfully developed her own 7nm DUVs, repeating the success story of Taiwan's TSMC in the past years, but still lagging about 4 years behind.
      ---
      But in terms of the collection of massive amount of real-time data to further improve the intelligence of the AI system, China has an obvious comparative advantage in this aspect.
      Take driverless automatic steering in an electric car.
      Thanks to her own big population, China can collect much more data than the US from all her country's drivers of electric cars, and so she can make much more and much quicker improvements to her developing AI steering system.
      The US can hardly borrow the necessary data from her friendly foreign countries, because different countries have different traffic regulations, different road conditions, different driving habits, different weather conditions, and different road infrastructures.
      ---
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  - vic lai Jul 26, 2022
    
    In China, "industrialization" (together with massive migrations of rural workers into the cities) provides the country with the necessary aggregate supply (supplying partly to the domestic Chinese economy, and partly to the rest of the world), while domestic consumption, net-exports, and "urbanization" (partly in the form of real-estate construction in the urban cities, and partly in the form of intra- and inter-provincial basic infrastructure constructions of all kinds) provide the country with the main aggregate demand.
    ---
    Currently in China, while internal demand is weak, external demand is still strong, thanks to the US's latest round of unlimited QE for the people, and so, full or friend-shoring de-globalization hasn't had a profound adverse effect on China yet.
    Even if friend-shoring deglobalization is in full swing in the near future, China's deficient aggregate demand as a result of the non-trivial drop in her net-exports can be more than compensated by her coming unfinished metropolitanization strive.
    ---
    - Henry Rech Jul 30, 2022
      
      Vic,
      
      You do go on interminably about a range of peripheral matters.
      
      The simple point is that China would not be where it is if it wasn't for the West and China's behaviour runs the risk of causing the West to decouple completely from China. China can cope with this to a point. (There are some basic raw materials it must import, iron ore, copper, high quality metallurgical coal.)
      
      The West does not need China. In fact, China essentially, via globalization, has been the source of economic, political and social tensions in the West. The West would be better off without cheap Chinese goods.
      
      Now that China has a powerful economy which has permitted the assembly of a formidable military capacity it believes it can do as it pleases. Unfortunately, China has chosen the low road of military adventurism.
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    - Henry Rech Jul 26, 2022
      
      Chinese hubris is understandable. Human beings thrive on the gloat.
      
      But the Chinese should remember that their economic miracle was only made possible by western capital, western technology, western markets and of course, cheap Chinese labour.
      
      The internalization of the Chinese economy is inevitable as its internal cost structure rises (just as has happened to Japan and caused Japan to stagnate) and its internal cost structure will rise as it internalizes its economy. The internalization of the Chinese economy is being accelerated by shifting geostrategic imperatives.
      
      That the Chinese will achieve their global ambitions is being facilitated by one factor and that is the US's decline into self destruction and dissolution, the result of its extreme economic, political and social polarization (much of which has been the result of globalization).
      
      If ever the US manages to extract itself from this downward spiral, Chinese hubris will soon dissipate.
      - vic lai Jul 26, 2022
        
        Well, we should also remember that the US's economic miracle in the 19th century was only made possible by European capital, European technology, European markets (at least for the cotton in the South), and of course, cheap European immigation labour.
        Don't forget also that, in the 19th century, Britain required Germany's exports to her to have the label "Made in Germany," so that the British consumers could easily tell apart Britain's first-class products from Germany's copied shoddy ones.
        There's nothing really new under the sun.
        ---
        Today's rising populism and increasing polarization between labor and capital in the US will best be solved not by finding a scapegoat and so constantly harassing China, but by making the US GDP cake grow much faster than before, so that even the lagging behind people there can share a bigger part of the quickly growing cake, and this requires further significant real investments to much increase the overall wealth of the country, say through the Federal Government's coming ambitious QE-for-real-investment projects (China has been doing this for a few decades already, hence her economic miracle).
        ---
        
        vic lai Jul 27, 2022
        
        I don't mean China should therefore keep copying or pirating the products of the West, but I think you should know what I mean.
        Today, China should instead strive hard to climb up the ladders of the Global Value Chain, or to climb up both sides of the Global Smiling Curve, to repeat the past success stories of both the US and Germany and to provide lots of state-of-the-art Chinese products to the rest of the world, even though the West seems to be doing whatever it takes to deter China from doing so.
        ---
        Today, in our highly-interconnected flat world, even a product as simple as a pencil can never be entirely made by a single country alone, let alone Boeing's airplane, and so the label "Made in China," say, is actually misleading and meaningless.
        Almost every product or service nowadays is actually made or provided by the entire cooperating world, with the "Made by the World" label correctly attached, and so the present trend of deglobalization is not only misleading but is also very inefficient and costly as well.
        ---
        
        vic lai Jul 27, 2022
        
        Future world history book may record that the global pandemic in early 2020 broke out at the worst time possible in human history, because
        (i) the resulting bottlenecks resulting from massive disruptions in the global supply chains had prompted the tide from one of just-in-time inventory to one of just-in-case inventory, thereby ending up in the current inefficient new tide of re-shoring deglobalization or friend-shoring deglobalization,
        (ii) the quick and easy transmission of the virus in the densely populated super-big Chinese cities had discouraged the Beijing leaders from further pursuing their highly efficient metropolitanization strive,
        (iii) the US's unlimited QE for the People, which was initially intended to prevent the country from falling into a deep depression after the pandemic, had also led to runaway domestic inflation, forcing the Fed to complete her rate-hiking and QT cycles and so also popping the country's everything asset bubble as a result,
        (iv) the runaway inflation in the US in the early 2020s had also discouraged the US from ambitiously starting a highly necessary new QE-for-real-investment project in the following decade, and so allowing China to eventually take over her economically, technologically, and militarily long before the middle of this century.
        ---
        
        vic lai Jul 28, 2022
        
        US-instigated friend-shoring (de-)globalization away from China, and the consequent rerouting to Vietnam say, can't really hurt China, but will benefit Vietnam and increase imported inflation in the US (due to much increased transaction costs).
        ---
        This is because China can simply transfer the final low-value-added manufacturing and assembling processes to Vietnam (with the label "Made in Vietnam" attached to the final products exported to the US).
        So, Vietnam's exporting factories have to keep relying on China for the main component supplies and related Chinese technologies, so that the less the US buys from China and the more she buys from Vietnam instead, the more China is exporting to Vietnam (and hence indirectly to the US).
        ---
        Without having gone through China's USSR-assisted initial stage of industrialization before the 1970s, Vietnam can hardly use import substitutions to upgrade her own low-value-added domestic industries, and hence she can't more easily and quickly climb up further the global value chains in the future, and so she will remain just one of many "export channels" of China, and will have a hard time bypassing the middle-income trap due to her missing past development of her own steel and heavy-chemical industries.
        ---
        
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lt lee Jul 25, 2022

"Yes, trade was the glue that fostered integration of the world economy. But it was hardly the rising tide that lifted all boats."

Trade is hardly the rising tide that lifted all boats. NOTHING IS. Trade is still the best glue for world integration. As for liberal democracy and its so called universal values, deep polarization within the US society is highly educational concerning the efficacy of such values in world integration.
- K RS Jul 25, 2022
  
  I would only add that the deep polarization within the US is firmly entrenched in many countries around the world. The far right in the US found an opening for pressing their agenda under the previous administration and they embraced it. I believe those political parties around the globe who align with the type of far right policies that have surged to the forefront of the US political system are taking advantage of it and are being successful in doing so. I don't think that has anything to do with judging the "efficacy" of liberal values. I see it as a political movement that wants to control what, how and where constituents can live their lives in peace. A 6 to 3 conservative US Supreme Court has taken the lead by injecting moral arguments in overturning decades of legal precedence which is a clear example of that. In my view anyway.
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去全球化的中国变数

What Justifies China’s Zero-COVID Policy?

Only China Can Stop Russia

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