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对中国实力的误读

发自纽黑文——特朗普政府低估了中国的复原能力和战略决心。眼看着中国经济放缓,美国相信自己的对手已是遍体鳞伤,只求尽快结束贸易战。然而拥有足够政策空间来应对当前放缓局面的中国领导层根本没必要去放弃其长期战略。虽然一项着眼于双边贸易的表面交易似乎即将达成,但在究竟谁占上风这个问题上,两大经济体基本支柱之间的鲜明对比则指向了一个截然不同的判断。

诚然,中国经济在过去几个月中明显走弱。但这并非源自于美国自以为得逞的关税战略,而在很大程度上是中国求仁得仁的结果。这个局面最初是由去杠杆运动引起的,旨在消除债务密集型经济增长的风险。值得赞扬的是,中国政策制定者已采取积极行动以避免沾染上可怕的日本综合症——不仅债务过剩,还存在大量僵尸企业以及相关生产力挑战。

这一努力在很大程度上使得信贷增长从2016年初的16%左右放缓到了2018年末的10.5%左右。这对中国曾经强大的投资引擎——也是经济体中最大的组成部分——产生了重大影响。其增长幅度也从2013年底的20%增长放缓至2018年末的约6%。

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