La novedad y la normalidad de China son relativas

HONG KONG – Acabo de pasar una semana en China, donde participé en el Foro de Boao para Asia, conferencia similar a la reunión anual del Foro Económico Mundial de Davos. El tema de mi mesa redonda fue lo que el Presidente Xi Jinping ha llamado la “nueva normalidad” de la economía china: una era de crecimiento relativamente más lento, tras tres decenios de expansión económica de dos dígitos.

Pero lo que más me sorprende de la economía de China es lo notable que es. De hecho, sus resultados siguen asombrándome. Aunque afronta indudablemente muchos problemas, la cuestión fundamental es la de hasta qué punto es probable que se hunda la economía.

De los cuatro países BRIC –el Brasil, Rusia, la India y China–, el de Xi es el único que ha cumplido hasta ahora mis previsiones de crecimiento en este decenio. De 2011 a 2014, la tasa de crecimiento de la economía china por término medio fue del ocho por ciento al año. Si sigue creciendo un siete por ciento, aproximadamente, en el resto del decenio, como esperan las autoridades y muchos observadores, logrará un ritmo medio de expansión de 7,5 por ciento, en consonancia con mis proyecciones.

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