Китай Не Такой Новый Не Такой Нормальный

ГОНКОНГ – Только что я провел неделю в Китае, где участвовал в Азиатском Форуме Боао, конференции, подобной ежегодному собранию Всемирного Экономического Форума в Давосе. Темой моего стенда было то, что Президент Си Цзиньпин назвал “новая норма” китайской экономики: эпоха относительно медленного роста, после трех десятилетий двузначных цифр экономического роста.

Но то, что поражает меня больше всего в экономике Китая, это насколько она замечательна. Действительно, ее производительность продолжает меня удивлять. Хотя она, безусловно, сталкивается лицом к лицу с многими проблемами, ключевой вопрос состоит в том, какова вероятность того, что они снизят экономику.

Из лидеров четырех стран БРИК - Бразилии, России, Индии и Китая - Си является единственным, кто исполнил мои ожидания роста в этом десятилетии. С 2011 по 2014 года, китайская экономика выросла в среднем с годовой ставкой 8% в год. Если она будет продолжать расти примерно на 7% до конца десятилетия, как ожидают власть и многие наблюдатели, то в соответствии с моими прогнозами, она достигнет среднего темпа развития в 7,5%.

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