China - nicht so neu, nicht so normal

HONGKONG – Ich war gerade eine Woche in China, wo ich am Boao Asia Forum teilnahm, einer Konferenz, die mit dem jährlichen Treffen des Weltwirtschaftsforums in Davos vergleichbar ist. Das Thema meiner Podiumsdiskussion war, was Präsident Xi Jinping "den neuen Normalzustand" der chinesischen Wirtschaft genannt hat: eine Ära mit einem relativ geringen Wachstum, gemessen an drei Jahrzehnten mit einer Wirtschaftsexpansion im zweistelligen Bereich.

Aber was mich an der chinesischen Wirtschaft am meisten beeindruckt, ist, wie bemerkenswert sie ist. Ihre Leistung erstaunt mich noch immer. Obwohl sie zweifelsfrei vielen Herausforderungen gegenübersteht, ist die Frage, wie wahrscheinlich es ist, dass diese die Wirtschaft in die Knie zwingen werden.

Von den vier BRIC-Staaten - Brasilien, Russland, Indien und China - ist China der einzige, der meine bisherigen Wachstumserwartungen für dieses Jahrzehnt erfüllt hat. Zwischen 2011 und 2014 wuchs die chinesische Wirtschaft mit einer jährlichen Wachstumsrate von acht Prozent. Wenn sie bis Ende des Jahrzehnts um circa sieben Prozent weiterwächst, wovon die Regierung und viele Beobachter ausgehen, wird sie eine durchschnittliche Wachstumsrate von 7,5 Prozent erreichen, was mit meiner Prognose übereinstimmt.

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