Čínský ne zcela nový ne zcela normál

HONGKONG – Strávil jsem nyní týden v Číně, kde jsem se zúčastnil Asijského fóra v Po-ao, konference podobné každoročnímu setkání Světového ekonomického fóra v Davosu. Tématem mé panelové diskuse byl stav, jejž prezident Si Ťin-pching označil za „nový normál“ čínské ekonomiky: éra relativně pomalejšího růstu, následující po třech desetiletích dvouciferného hospodářského rozmachu.

Na čínské ekonomice mě ovšem nejvíc udivuje, jak pozoruhodná je. Její výkonnost mě skutečně stále ohromuje. Přestože nepochybně čelí řadě výzev, klíčovou otázkou je, nakolik je pravděpodobné, že by ekonomiku srazily na kolena.

Země pod správou prezidenta Si je ze čtyř zemí BRIC – Brazílie, Rusko, Indie a Čína – jediná, která zatím naplňuje mé očekávání pro růst v tomto desetiletí. V letech 2011 až 2014 čínská ekonomika rostla průměrným ročním tempem 8 %. Poroste-li po zbytek dekády o zhruba 7 % ročně, jak úřady a mnozí experti očekávají, dosáhne průměrně 7,5% tempa expanze, v souladu s mými prognózami.

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