"المعتاد غير الجديد وغير المعتاد" في الصين

هونج كونج ــ قضيت مؤخرا أسبوعا في الصين، حيث شاركت في منتدى بواو الآسيوي، وهو مؤتمر يشبه التجمع السنوي بمنتدى دافوس الاقتصادي العالمي. كان موضوع ندوتي ما وصفه الرئيس الصيني شي جين بينج بالوضع "المعتاد الجديد" للاقتصاد الصيني: ويقصد به مرحلة من النمو الأبطأ نسبيا، بعد ثلاثة عقود من التوسع الاقتصادي بمعدل تجاوز 10% سنويا.

لكن أكثر ما أدهشني بشأن اقتصاد الصين هو مدى تميزه وتفرده. حقا، إن أداءه لا يزال يدهشني. فرغم التحديات الجمة التي يواجهها، يتركز السؤال الرئيس حول مدى احتمالية سقوط هذا الاقتصاد أمام تلك التحديات.

وحتى الآن، يعتبر الاقتصاد الصيني الوحيد من بين دول مجموعة بريك الأربع ــ البرازيل وروسيا والهند والصين ــ الذي حقق توقعاتي للنمو في هذا العقد. فقد سجل الاقتصاد الصيني بين عامي 2011 و2014 نمواً بلغ معدله السنوي في المتوسط 8%. وإذا استمر في النمو بنحو 7% إلى نهاية العقد، بحسب توقعات الهيئات وكثير من المراقبين، فسوف يحقق وتيرة توسع تبلغ 7.5% سنوياً في المتوسط، وهو ما يتسق مع تقديراتي.

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