Chinese buildings STR | Stringer via getty images

为何中国能够按计划增长

北京—最近,中国完成了十三五规划的制定,为2016—2020年勾勒出经济战略和目标地图。其中一个目标是实现GDP和平均农村和城市家庭收入在2010年水平的基础上翻一番。

这些目标需要中国经济平均年增长率在未来五年至少达到6.5%。这一速度比1979年以来平均每年9.7%的增长率低不少,但从国际标准看,毫无疑问仍属于高增长。此外,考虑到自2010年初以来中国每个季度增长都有所放缓,一些人开始质疑这一目标是否可以实现。我相信答案是肯定的。

经济增长来自由技术进步和产业升级带来的劳动生产率的增加。高收入国家已经处于生产率的前沿,必须通过技术和组织突破才能实现增长;因此,它们的典型增长率在3%左右。但是,发展中国家可以通过从发达国家借技术——即像中国那样利用后发优势——加快生产率增长,从而加快GDP增长。

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