الصين وتحدي ازدواج المسار

هونج كونج ــ الآن، بعد أن أصبح التباطؤ الاقتصادي في الصين أكثر وضوحاً من أي وقت مضى، فإن احتمالات تمكنه من تجنب الهبوط الحاد باتت ضعيفة على نحو متزايد. وسوف يتوقف نجاح صناع السياسات على قدرتهم على الإبحار عبر التحديات النابعة من اقتصاد مزدوج المسار ومنقسم بشكل متزايد.

والواقع أن أحدث البيانات على أساس سنوي من يناير/كانون الثاني تسلط الضوء على المخاطر. فقد انخفض مؤشر أسعار المستهلك إلى 0.8%؛ وتراجع مؤشر أسعار المنتجين بنحو 4.3%؛ وتقلصت الصادرات بنسبة 3.3%؛ وانخفضت الواردات بنسبة 19.9%؛ وتباطأ نمو المعروض النقدي الواسع (M2) بنحو 1.4%.

وعلاوة على ذلك، خضع الرنمينبي لضغوط هبوطية، وهو ما يرجع جزئياً إلى التعافي الاقتصادي في الولايات المتحدة، والذي غذى تدفقات رأس المال. ونظراً للانخفاضات الكبيرة في نمو الأرباح الصناعية (من 12.2% في عام 2013 إلى 3.3% في العام الماضي) وإيرادات الحكومات المحلية من مبيعات الأراضي (التي انخفضت بنسبة 37% في عام 2014)، فهناك قدر كبير من القلق من أن تتسبب الدورة الانكماشية اليوم في إشعال شرارة أزمة ديون تضرب الشركات والحكومات المحلية.

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