Hong Kong skyline

Enseñanzas de la intervención china en el mercado

BEIJING – La Bolsa de China ha estado en el candelero desde mediados de este año, cuando una veloz suba de las cotizaciones fue seguida por una importante caída que provocó un derrumbe bursátil global. La pregunta ahora es ¿qué puede hacerse para prevenir una mayor volatilidad?

Para responderla hay que comprender cómo China llegó hasta aquí. Durante años, con el aliento (o al menos la aceptación) de las autoridades, las corredurías chinas no escatimaron esfuerzos en inflar las bolsas del país con prácticas e instrumentos financieros de moda, sin otro objetivo que subir las cotizaciones para obtener plusvalías (ya que rara vez se distribuyen dividendos). En consecuencia, tras años de malos rendimientos, el Índice Compuesto de Shanghai creció más del 100% en menos de siete meses, desde 2505 puntos en noviembre de 2014 a más de 5178 en junio de este año, un nivel que los fundamentos económicos de China no justifican.

El instrumento más importante detrás de esta escalada fue la inversión en cuentas de margen, que permitió a los inversores endeudarse fuertemente para comprar acciones. Según David Cui, estratega del Bank of America, unos 7,5 billones de yuanes (1,2 billones de dólares) de las posiciones de mercado están en cuentas de margen, lo que equivale “a alrededor del 13% de la capitalización del mercado de acciones clase A y el 34% de su capital flotante”.

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