Hong Kong skyline

中国的干预教训

北京—今年夏天以来,中国股市成为一个热门话题。急速上涨变成大崩盘,引发了全球股市大甩卖。现在的问题是如何防止进一步波动。

要回答这个问题,需要理解中国如何走到今天这一步。多年来,在当局的鼓励(或至少是默许)下,中国证券公司卯足了劲用各种新奇金融工具和做法推高指数,其唯一的目的是在股价上涨中收获资本利得(中国很少派发股息)。结果,在多年的熊市后,上证指数在不到七个月的时间里飙升100%度,从2014年11月的2,505点涨到今年6月的5,178点——这一水平是中国经济基本面无法支撑的。

助力这波涨势的最重要的工具是保证金交易。保证金交易让投资者大量借钱购买股票。据美国银行策略师崔伟的估计,7.5万亿元人民币的股票头寸来自保证金,“相当于A股市值的13%和流通市值的34%。”

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