China schreitet voran

PEKING – China gehört mit einem Pro-Kopf-Einkommen von 3800 USDollar jetzt zu den Ländern mit mittlerem Einkommen. Aber obwohl Ökonomen und Strategen daraus bereits eifrig Prognosen ableiten, wann China die Vereinigten Staaten eingeholt haben wird, war 2010 die Stimmung im Land selbst eher gedämpft. Premierminister Wen Jiabao bezeichnete Chinas Wachstum sogar als „instabil, unausgewogen, unkoordiniert und letztlich nicht nachhaltig“.

Wirtschaftswachstum war natürlich noch nie linear, in keinem Land. Die Geschichte liefert zahlreiche Beispiele für Länder mit mittlerem Einkommen, die jahrzehntelang in dieser Kategorie gefangen bleiben oder sogar wieder in die Kategorie der Länder mit niedrigem Einkommen abrutschen. Der Ökonom und Nobelpreisträger Michael Spence hat darauf hingewiesen, dass es nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg nur einer Handvoll Ländern gelungen ist, ein voll industrialisiertes Entwicklungsniveau zu erreichen.

Chinas Fortschritt in den letzten drei Jahrzehnten ist eine erfolgreiche Variante des ostasiatischen Wachstumsmodells, das vom Fundament einer sozialistischen Planwirtschaft ausgeht. Dieses Modell hat jetzt sein Potenzial fast ausgeschöpft. China hat also einen entscheidenden Punkt erreicht: Ohne schmerzhafte Umstrukturierungen kann es seine Wachstumsdynamik von einem auf den anderen Tag verlieren.

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