Quel avenir pour la Chine ?

BEIJING – Avec un revenu par habitant de 3800 dollars, la Chine est maintenant passée dans la catégorie des pays à revenus moyens. Mais, tandis que les économistes et stratèges politiques s’évertuent, en extrapolant la croissance future de la Chine, à prédire quand elle rattrapera les Etats-Unis, l’humeur était sombre et introvertie en Chine en 2010. En fait, le Premier ministre Wen Jiabao a estimé que la croissance chinoise était « instable, déséquilibrée, non coordonnée et en fin de compte non durable ».

La croissance économique n’a bien sûr jamais été linéaire, dans aucun pays. Il existe, tout au long de l’histoire, d’innombrables exemples de pays à revenus moyens qui sont restés embourbés dans cette catégorie pendant des décennies pour ensuite retomber dans la catégorie des pays à bas revenus. Comme l’a souligné le lauréat du prix Nobel en sciences économiques Michael Spence, après la Seconde guerre mondiale, seuls quelques pays ont pu atteindre un stade de développement industrialisé avancé.

Les progrès enregistrés par la Chine ces trois dernières décennies sont une variation réussie du modèle de croissance est-asiatique né des conditions initiales établies par une économie socialiste planifiée. Mais ce modèle de croissance a presque épuisé son potentiel. La Chine est donc aujourd’hui à une croisée des chemins : sans ajustements structurels difficiles, elle pourrait subitement perdre son élan de croissance économique.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/8FJiC8B/fr;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now