中国向前进

北京——中国的人均收入达到3,800美元,已经超过了中等收入国家的收入标准。 可就在战略和经济学家忙于推测中国的发展道路,预测中国何时能赶超美国的时候,中国的国内情绪在2010年却显得既严肃又克制。事实上,温家宝总理认为中国的发展“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、并且最终不可持续。”

当然,任何国家的经济增长都绝非一帆风顺。 纵观历史,中等收入国家进入这一发展阶段后数十年停滞不前,和/或最终退回到低收入国家的例子不胜枚举。 诺贝尔奖得主迈克尔·斯宾塞指出在第二次世界大战后,只有少数几个国家最终达到了完全工业化的发展水平。

令中国在过去30年取得巨大成功的发展模式是以社会主义计划经济为初始条件的一种东亚发展模式的变体。 但这种发展模式现在已经耗光了大部分潜力。 因此中国已经到了紧要关头: 如果不进行痛苦的结构调整,中国的经济增长势头就有可能嘎然而止。

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