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Solar photovoltaic modules on a hillside in a village in Chuzhou STR/AFP/Getty Images

中国大胆的能源愿景

北京——实现2015年巴黎气候协定所制定目标的最大胆的计划来源于中国的手笔。巴黎协议要求世界各国政府承诺将全球变暖控制在比前工业化水平低两摄氏度的范围内(3.6华氏度)。上述目标主要通过到2050年将世界主要能耗来源从碳基化石燃料(煤炭、石油和天然气)转移到可再生的零碳能源(风能、太阳能、水电、地热、海洋能及生物质能)以及核能来实现。中国的全球能源互联计划(GEI)为实现这一能源转型目标描绘了激动人心的愿景。

鲜有政府对这一转型的规模具备充分的认识。气候学家经常提到“碳预算”——也就是人类未来可以排放的二氧化碳总量,而上述总量以将全球变暖控制在比前工业化水平高两摄氏度以下为前提。目前的估计显示世界碳预算的中点约为6000亿吨。人类目前每年排放大约400亿吨二氧化碳,这意味着世界必须在本世纪中叶甚至更早淘汰化石燃料,并彻底转向零排放的主要能源来源。

下面的任务需要我们来完成。目前主要靠燃烧煤炭和天然气来发电;这些热电企业需要被逐步淘汰,并以利用太阳能、风能、水电、核能以及其他非碳能源发电的电力企业来实现替代。今天的建筑采暖主要采用锅炉、散热器以及以石油和天然气为燃料的采暖炉;这些都需要由通过电力采暖的建筑来取代。今天的车辆运行依靠石油产品;这些都需要由电动汽车来取代。

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