Chinese container ship Sean Gallup | getty images

中国和大宗商品价格的未来

马尼拉—毫无疑问,中国增长的持续放缓对全球经济造成了深远影响。但其对2014年以来大宗商品价格暴跌的作用要比传统智慧所认为的有限得多。大宗商品的暴跌给大宗商品出口国带来了灾难,包括曾经充满活力的新兴经济体。事实上,中国减速只是大宗商品价格故事的一部分。

诚然,中国GDP增长和大宗撒谎那个品及挨个之间存在明确的相关性。21世纪初,当中国增长加速时,大宗商品价格暴涨;自2011年中国开始减速以来,能源价格跌去70%,金属价格跌去50%,农产品价格跌去35%。

但认为中国减速是大宗商品阿济格暴跌的主要推动力的观点是不完全的。亚洲开发银行的新研究认为,尽管中国在大宗商品市场上起着非常重要的作用——比如,中国消费了全球大约一半的金属、煤炭和猪肉——但并没有像人们广泛认为的那样起着主导作用。中国只占世界糖、小麦、家禽和牛肉消费的不到五分之一,原油消费的12%,天然气的5%。而事实上,一些下跌幅度最大的大宗商品价格——最显著的是石油(下跌73%)和天然气(下跌55%)——中国都只是相对次要的因素。

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