China foreign exchange Zhang Chunlei/ZumaPress

الصين وحماقات الفوركس

بيركلي ــ في الحادي عشر من أغسطس/آب، خفضت الصين قيمة عملتها بنسبة 2% وأصلحت نظام سعر الصرف بشكل متواضع. ولم يكن ذلك حدثاً مُزلزِلاً للأرض، ولكن الأسواق المالية استجابت له كما لو كانت النيازك انهمرت عليها. ولم تكن ردة الفعل السلبية هذه لغزاً مستعصياً على الحل: ذلك أن خفض قيمة العملة في الصين كان مثالاً نموذجياً لكيفية عدم إدارة سياسة سعر الصرف.

فكان أحد دوافع الحكومة كما افترض البعض إعطاء دفعة قوية لاقتصاد الصين المتباطئ. وبرغم أن قطاع الخدمات، الذي يمثل غالبية العمالة، لا يزال صامداً نسبيا، فإن ناتج السلع القابلة للتداول في الصين والتي ينتج أغلبها لغرض التصدير، ينحدر بشكل حاد. ويجد المصدرون الصينيون أنفسهم واقعين بين فكي كماشة الطلب الخارجي الضعيف والأجور المحلية التي تشهد ارتفاعاً سريعا.

الواقع أن خفض قيمة العملة علاج مجرب وحقيقي لمثل هذه العلل. ولكن التغير بنسبة 2% في قيم العملات أقل كثيراً من أن يحدث فارقاً كبيرا، لأن الأجور في قطاع التصنيع في الصين يرتفع بمعدل سنوي قدره 10%.

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