renminbi Jie Zhao/Corbis/Getty Images

Не пора ли выгнать Китай из СДР?

САНТА-БАРБАРА – На минувшей неделе китайское правительство ужесточило контроль над обменным курсом юаня. По сути, Китай нарушил обещание, данное 18 месяцев назад, когда он лоббировал включение юаня в корзину валют, на основе которой рассчитывается стоимость синтетического резервного актива Международного валютного фонда – специальных прав заимствования (СДР).

Последние решения Китая вряд ли помогут укрепить доверие к валюте этой страны. Как предупреждали в своё время эксперты, включение юаня в корзину СДР было крайне политизированным решением, которое может иметь долгосрочные негативные последствия. Ранее в корзину входили доллар США, евро, британский фунт и японская иена. Эти валюты мирового класса соответствуют двумя критериям МВФ: они эмитируются крупнейшими мировыми экспортёрам и «свободно обращаются», то есть широко обмениваются во всём мире.

Напротив, юань, в момент включения в корзину СДР, отвечал лишь первому критерию. Хотя Китай уже тогда был крупнейшим в мире экспортёром, его финансовые рынки находились в примитивном состоянии, а валюта страны была явно далека от выполнения критерия свободной обращаемости. В 2015 году юань занимал седьмое место в глобальных резервах центральных банков, восьмое – в международных выпусках облигаций и 11-е место в глобальной валютой торговле. Юань был неконвертируемым с точки зрения большинства капитальных транзакций.

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