Se debe dejar estallar a la burbuja de China

NUEVA YORK – Los problemas con el patrón de crecimiento económico de China han llegado a ser muy conocidos durante los últimos años, pero la reciente caída libre de la Bolsa china hizo que se agudice el enfoque sobre los mismos. Sin embargo, los debates sobre los desequilibrios y vulnerabilidades de la economía china tienden a olvidar algunos de los elementos más positivos de su evolución estructural, en especial el historial que tiene el gobierno en cuanto a su rápida intervención correctiva, y la sustancial hoja de balance estatal que se puede emplear, en caso necesario.

En este sentido, sin embargo, la burbuja del mercado de valores que se desarrolló durante la primera mitad del año debería ser vista como una excepción. Ocurre que no sólo los reguladores chinos permitieron el crecimiento de la burbuja al consentir que los inversores minoristas – muchos de ellos recién llegados al mercado – participaran en operaciones al descubierto (usando dinero prestado), sino que también las políticas de respuesta a la corrección en el mercado, iniciadas a finales del mes de junio, han sido altamente problemáticas.

Si se tienen en cuenta las experiencias pasadas con este tipo de burbujas, estos errores con respecto a las políticas son desconcertantes. Estuve en Beijing en el otoño del año 2007, cuando el Índice Compuesto de Shanghái se disparó a casi 6.000 puntos (el pico más reciente apenas superó los 5.000 puntos), en parte debido a la participación de inversores minoritarios relativamente inexpertos.

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