Lasst die chinesische Blase platzen

NEW YORK – Die Probleme mit dem Wachstumsmuster der chinesischen Wirtschaft sind seit Jahren bekannt, doch der jüngste Einbruch am chinesischen Aktienmarkt ließ sie in besonderem Maße zutage treten. Allerdings werden in den Diskussionen um die Ungleichgewichte und Schwachstellen der chinesischen Wirtschaft die positiveren Elemente seiner strukturellen Entwicklung außer Acht gelassen, insbesondere die Erfolgsbilanz der Regierung hinsichtlich rascher korrektiver Maßnahmen sowie das beträchtliche Ausmaß ihrer Haushaltsbilanz, derer man sich im Bedarfsfall bedienen kann.

In diesem Zusammenhang sollte die Aktienblase, die sich im ersten Halbjahr herausbildete, allerdings als Ausnahme betrachtet werden. Die chinesischen Regulierungsbehörden ermöglichten nicht nur das Wachstum der Blase, indem man Kleinanlegern – viele davon Neulinge auf dem Markt – die Möglichkeit kreditfinanzierter Aktienkäufe einräumte. Auch die politische Reaktion auf die Ende Juni einsetzende Marktkorrektur gestaltet sich höchst problematisch.

Angesichts der Erfahrungen in der Vergangenheit mit derartigen Blasen erscheinen diese politischen Fehler rätselhaft. Ich befand mich im Herbst 2007 in Peking, als der Shanghai Composite Index teilweise aufgrund des Engagements relativ unerfahrener Kleinanleger auf beinahe 6.000 Punkte emporschnellte (der jüngste Höchststand betrug etwas über 5.000 Punkte).

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