让中国的泡沫破灭

发自纽约——中国经济增长模式所产生的问题在近期广受关注,而中国股市最近的直线下跌使它们成为了更为尖锐的焦点问题。但对中国经济失衡和脆弱性的讨论往往忽视结构性变革中一些更为积极的元素,尤其是政府过往那些迅速纠偏行动,以及在必要时可以动用的大量国家资产。

然而,从这个角度看,今年上半年爆发的股票市场泡沫应被视为一个例外。不仅因为中国监管机构允许散户投资者——其中很大一部分都是第一次炒股——(用借来的钱)从事融资融券交易促使泡沫增长;而且6月下旬开始的响应市场回调的政策也存在极大问题。

鉴于过去对这些泡沫的经验,这些政策的错误是令人费解的。2007年秋我在北京,当时上证指数飙升至近6000点(最近这波的高点是5000多点),部分原因是相对缺乏经验的散户投资者的大量参与。

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