中国的试错经济

香港—在本月的全国人大上,中国总理李克强的2015年工作规划强调中国进入了经济增长率为7%的“新常态”。这一增长放缓的转变在短期是一个严峻的挑战,但也为中国确保长期经济发展创造了重要的机会。

中国领导人不仅认识到这一机会,而且也正在采取行动引导中国经济转向更加可持续的增长模式。财政部将中央政府预算赤字占GDP之比从2014年的1.8%提高到2015年的2.7%,并允许高负债的地方政府将1万亿人民币的今年到期债务置换为利率更低的长期债券。

中国人民银行也提供了一些货币政策支持,逐渐降低利率和准备金率。由于工资仍在上升,2015年的通胀目标定在3%——高于2014年2%的实际水平,尽管生产者价格指数负增长已有36个月。尽管日元、欧元和新兴经济体货币兑美元出现了大幅贬值,人民银行认为今年人民币对美元的汇率环境将保持稳定,并会稳步实现资本帐项下的人民币可兑换,这将促进全球金融稳定。

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