管窥中国新常态

美国剑桥—每年的这个时候,中国政府都会组织一次盛会。这一盛会由中国国务院发展研究中心主办,汇集中国高级官员、中国和西方企业CEO以及一小部分国际官员和学者。发展中国论坛在一年一度的全国人大会议后不久举行。

在这一论坛上,演讲者——包括财政部长和央行首脑——会总结中国领导层的最新思维。接着,官员们听取来自西方商界和学界与会者的评论和建议,李克强总理也会参与提问环节。

十多年来,我一直出席发展中国论坛会议,但我发现今年的会议与以往大不相同。关键区别在于中国官方承认了年实际GDP增长永久性地从过去三十年来近10%的平均水平有所下降。2014年官方估算实际GDP增长为7.4%,今年可能还会进一步降低到7%。发展研究中心所展示的详细估算表明增长率将继续下降,到这个十年的末尾达到6%左右。

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