نافذة على المعتاد الجديد في الصين

كمبريدج ــ في هذا الوقت من كل عام، تنظم الحكومة الصينية مؤتمراً كبيرا ــ برعاية مركز أبحاث التنمية، وهو المركز البحثي الرسمي التابع لمجلس الدولة ــ يجمع بين كبار المسؤولين الصينين، وكبار المسؤولين التنفيذيين من الشركات الصينية والغربية الكبرى، ومجموعة صغيرة من المسؤولين والأكاديميين الدوليين. ويقام منتدى تنمية الصين بعد مؤتمر الشعب الصيني السنوي مباشرة.

وفي المنتدى يقوم المتحدثون، بما في ذلك وزير المالية ورئيس البنك المركزي، بتلخيص الفِكر الحالي للقيادة الصينية. ثم ينصت المسؤولون إلى التعليقات والاقتراحات من المشاركين من رجال الأعمال والأكاديميين الغربيين، بما في ذلك جلسة للأسئلة والإجابات مع رئيس مجلس الدولة لي كه تشيانج.

ورغم أنني كنت أحضر اجتماعات منتدى تنمية الصين لأكثر من عقد من الزمان، فقد وجدت مؤتمر هذا العام مختلفاً إلى حد كبير عن أي مؤتمر في الماضي. وكان الفارق الرئيسي هو الاعتراف الرسمي الصيني بأن نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي السنوي انخفض بشكل دائم من المعدل المتوسط على مدى العقود الثلاثة الماضية (ما يقرب من 10%). وتشير التقديرات الرسمية إلى أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الحقيقي سجل نمواً بلغ 7.4% في عام 2014، وأن المعدل ربما يزداد تباطؤاً إلى 7% هذا العام. وقَدَّم مركز أبحاث التنمية تقديرات مفصلة تبين أن معدل النمو سوف يستمر في الهبوط، لكي يبلغ نحو 6% بحلول نهاية هذا العقد.

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