¿China puede evitar la deflación?

BERLÍN – En su discurso en la reunión del Foro Económico Mundial de 2015 en Davos, el premier chino, Li Keqiang, reconoció que la economía de China está enfrentando fuertes vientos en contra. El crecimiento anual del PIB en 2014 fue de 7,4%, la tasa más baja desde 1990. Pero, para estabilizar el crecimiento económico, prometió que China "continuará aplicando una política fiscal proactiva y una política monetaria prudente".

La desaceleración actual de China fue inducida por las políticas. Durante los dos últimos años, el gobierno ajustó la política fiscal y monetaria, con la esperanza de compensar los efectos adversos del enorme paquete de estímulo que se aplicó en respuesta a la crisis financiera global de 2008. La intención del discurso de Li en Davos fue la de dar una señal de que el gobierno chino no permitirá que la tasa de crecimiento caiga más.

El paquete de estímulo de China fue, por lejos, el más grande del mundo y el que se implementó de manera más efectiva. Estabilizó el crecimiento en China y moderó la contracción económica global. Pero dejó como secuela algunos problemas serios para la economía china.

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