Xi Jinping Rao Aimin/ZumaPress

Was soll China tun?

STANFORD – Die schwerfälligen Bemühungen der chinesischen Regierung, die jüngsten Schwankungen des Aktienmarktes einzudämmen – wie das aktuelle Verbot von Leerverkäufen und Verkäufen großer Aktienbesitzer – hat ihre Vertrauenswürdigkeit schwer beschädigt. Aber die politischen Fehler des Landes kommen nicht überraschend. Die dortigen Politiker sind nicht die ersten, die die Finanzmärkte, die Währungen und den Handel falsch einschätzen. Bereits in den frühen 1990ern erlitten auch viele europäische Regierungen bei der Verteidigung aus dem Ruder laufender Währungen demütigende Verluste.

Aber die chinesische Wirtschaft bleibt weiterhin eine Quelle erheblicher Unsicherheit. In der Tat ist ein deutlicher Einbruch zu erwarten, obwohl zwischen der Entwicklung des chinesischen Aktienmarktes und der Realwirtschaft bisher keine enge Korrelation herrschte. Für Finanzministerien, Zentralbanken, Handelshäuser sowie Im- und Exporteure in aller Welt ist dies ein ernster Grund zur Besorgnis.

Die chinesische Regierung glaubt, sie könne beim Übergang vom export- und investitionsgetriebenen zweistelligen Aufschwung hin zu einem stetigen und ausgeglichen Wachstum, das auf Haushaltskonsum und Dienstleistungen beruht, eine weiche Landung bewirken. Und tatsächlich hat sie einige vernünftige Maßnahmen und Reformen eingeführt.

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