Xi Jinping Rao Aimin/ZumaPress

Que doit faire la Chine ?

STANFORD – Les efforts musclés fournis par le gouvernement chinois afin de contenir la récente volatilité du marché boursier – la dernière mesure en date ayant consisté à interdire aux plus grands actionnaires de procéder à des ventes à découvert – viennent considérablement endommager la crédibilité du pays. Les échecs politiques de la Chine n’ont pour autant rien de surprenant. Les dirigeants politiques du pays sont loin d’être les premiers à commettre des erreurs dans la gestion des marchés financiers, de la monnaie, et des échanges commerciaux. Nombre de gouvernements européens ont par exemple subi d’importantes pertes au début des années 1990, dans le cadre de la préservation de monnaies incorrectement alignées.

L’économie chinoise n’en demeure pas moins une source majeure d’incertitude. En effet, bien que la performance du marché boursier de la Chine et celle de l’économie réelle du pays n’aient pas été étroitement corrélées, un ralentissement considérable est en marche. Il y a là une question sérieuse, qui préoccupe naturellement les ministres des finances, banques centrales, comptoirs de négociation, importateurs et exportateurs du monde entier.

Le gouvernement chinois pensait pouvoir opérer un atterrissage en douceur, dans le cadre de la transition d’une formidable croissance économique à deux chiffres – alimentée par les exportations et investissements – à une croissance régulière et équilibrée, sous-tendue par la consommation domestique, notamment au travers des services. Dans le cadre de cet effort, le pays a effectivement mis en œuvre un certain nombre de politiques et de réformes judicieuses.

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