Economics

中国应该做什么？

Aug 26, 2015 Michael J. Boskin

斯坦福—中国政府大手笔遏制最近的股市波动——最新的举措是禁止卖空和大股东减持——严重损害了它的信誉。但中国的政策失败并不令人惊奇。中国决策者绝非金融市场、货币和贸易管理不当的“先锋”。比如，20世纪90年代初，许多欧洲政府因为试图捍卫估值不正确的货币而蒙受了巨大损失。

不过，中国经济仍然是巨大的不确定性来源。事实上，尽管中国股市以及实体经济表现之间的关系并不密切，但大减速已经开始。这是一个严重问题，令全世界财政部长、央行行长、交易界和进出口行业担心不已。

中国政府相信它可以在从出口和投资推动的动辄两位数的经济增长向以国内消费特别是服务业消费为基础的稳定均衡增长的过程中实现软着陆。而事实上，中国政府也实施了一些明智的政策和改革。

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Michael J. Boskin

Writing for PS since 2009
92 Commentaries

Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so-called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Godfree Roberts Sep 2, 2015

Holy cow! This is the wrongest article about China by a Stanford professor ever written! It betrays total unfamiliarity with the Chinese economy and the Chinese economic model China's debt fragilities are over-stated. They do not threaten the model. The proof is in the numbers. Not just headline growth, but stable and low inflation, strong wage growth and rising tax revenue. The St Louis Federal Reserve estimate that the multiplier on Chinese government spending is two. The economy is creating surplus capital to replace that which is destroyed. Finally, there's exports. Exports validate internal data: China is taking global market share. and prices are falling even as wages and currency rise. What's happening externally is surely happening internally.
The four largest, most profitable companies on earth are Chinese SOEs. China’s four biggest banks own the top four places in the world. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China tops the list for the third consecutive year: Sales $166.8 B, profits $44.8 B, assets $3,322 B and market value: of $278.3 B
A record 7.5 million students graduated from China's universities this year, highlighting the employment situation among fresh graduates as the country's economic growth slows. New graduates born in the 1990s are earning an average of 2,687 yuan (US$420) per month in their first jobs, an increase of 244 yuan (US$38) from a year ago. 2015 will be another year of 7% GDP growth. As promised.
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Garrett Connelly Aug 26, 2015

Growth to infinity on a finite planet is becoming a real problem for everyone.
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jagjeet sinha Aug 26, 2015

Yes the inefficiencies inherent in Public Sector can best be wished away with the Private Sector.
But the challenges that State Capitalism succeeds in overcoming in China's stage of economic development is perhaps a lesson for others to emulate. Infrastructure Finance will never be the same once their template succeeds internationally with the AIIB. In fact Infrastructure spending in Public Assets have produced the greatest capital gains everywhere. By harnessing those Capital gains recycled back for more Infrastructure spending, China has shown all a template worthy of emulation. Yes they have empty towns, but at least they don't have the abject poverty that India was never able to get out of - by following Bretton Woods templates.
In fact by harnessing those Capital gains, through taxation changes, China may have demonstrated alternatives to The West in financing Public Infrastructure Assets. The case for NIB made by Professor Skidelsky in Britain, funded by Monetization Two, has its First prototype in China. Strong arguments to perhaps call them NIIB and EIIB in Britain and Europe respectively - as AIIB arrives on the World stage, Made in China.
Notwithstanding the above, your comments on bringing in the Private Sector as the harbinger of higher efficiency has merit, but the caveat is State Capitalism delivers on so many challenges that it's role ought not to be sidelined - the US perhaps is at the other extreme with euphoria over higher Private Sector efficiency having decimated the Public Sector.
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eusebio manuel Aug 26, 2015

China has made little prpgress in its economic and financial system but still has a long wauy to go
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Margaret Bowker Aug 26, 2015

If, as Michael Boskin says, China is going through an important period of economic change into a new model, then the US and Europe will have to produce appropriate policy. Such as deferring the Fed rate rise, looking probable now, the UK rise seems to be fading; encouraging investment in infrastructure, job creation, domestic consumption, and the possibility of more stimulus by the ECB etc; Greece shouldn't be a big enough issue to upset any of this. Then perhaps their Markets will gain sufficient confidence to stop losing their nerve at the end of trading.
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Val Samonis Aug 26, 2015

The middle income trap is never easy to get out, let alone coupled with the systemic transformation that China undergoes. However, China has the opportunity to learn from comparing macro-prudential regulation efforts in diverse countries esp. since the 2008 Great Recession. For examaple, China can learn a lot from comparing the US and Canadian financial systems.

Val Samonis
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Robbie Jena Aug 26, 2015

Everyone from other countries are trying to talk about China without fixing their country...it happens when China is ready to be the number one economic country by dollar trade in a few years. This does not help anything except almost everything in Walmart, Target, Lowes and Home Depot is from china...It is an interesting exercise in managing Complexity....Thank you.
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Michael Public Aug 26, 2015

In other words, China should become America. For Americans it is rather easy to be American - but attempts at this path in the emerging world have not always generated good results. The American model is no doubt a fundamentally better one - but I can't help feel that for China, right now, the right decision is to stay the path and introduce reforms only gradually.
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中国应该做什么？

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