China village fast bikes slow candle Bryon Lippincott/Flickr

中国的慢增长机会

北京—在经历了令人失望的四年后,中国经济学家已经意识到,GDP增长的放缓——从2010年危机后峰值12.8%下降到今天的7%左右——主要是结构性的,而不是周期性的。换句话说,中国潜在增长率已经下降到显著更低的平台。尽管中国应能避免硬着陆,但可以预期未来十年年增长率保持在6—7%。但这未必是坏消息。

你也许会问,为何人均收入最近才越过7,000美元的中国,其GDP即将比1956—1970年的日本慢许多。1956—1970年,日本人均收入也在7,000美元左右,但其年增长率平均为9.7%。答案就在于潜在增长率。

据日本银行的数据,1960至1973年间,日本劳动生产率平均每年增长10%以上,而中国生产率增长在近几年中稳步下降从2001—2008年的11.8%下降到2008—2012年的8.8%,2011—2012年又下降到7.4%。日本劳动供给(以劳动时长衡量)也在1960至1973年期间有所增长,每年增长幅度超过3%。相反,自2012年以来,中国工作年龄人口开始下降,每年下降规模超过三百万——这一趋势将以4—6年的时滞导致劳动供给增长下降甚至由正转负。

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