Китайский порочный круг роста

ЛОНДОН – У большинства экономистов есть основания для беспокойства об экономике Китая – будь то низкое потребление и большие внешние профициты, избыточные мощности промышленности, деградация окружающей среды или государственные вмешательства, такие как контроль над движением капитала или финансовые репрессии. Однако многие из них не в состоянии признать, что все это лишь симптомы одной основной проблемы: перекоса в китайской модели роста.

Эта модель, в некоторой степени, является конструкцией с политической подоплекой и вызвана глубоко укоренившимися предубеждениями относительно того, что строительство и производство являются основными движущими силами экономического развития. Это пристрастие возвращает нас к Большому скачку 1950-х годов, когда металлолом плавился, чтобы обеспечить крайне оптимистичные планы по производству стали, продвигая, таким образом, к реализации мечты Мао о быстрой индустриализации.

Сегодня склонность Китая к промышленному производству проявляется в крупномасштабных производственных и инфраструктурных проектах, которые стимулируются за счет прямых и непрямых государственных субсидий. Привлекая инвестиции и создавая налоговые поступления в бюджеты местной власти, данный подход быстрее оказывает положительное влияние на рост ВВП, нежели усилия по развитию сектора услуг.

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    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

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