Chinas Wachstumsteufelskreis

LONDON – Die meisten Ökonomen machen sich aus irgendeinem Grund Sorgen über die chinesische Volkswirtschaft – sei es wegen des niedrigen Konsums und der großen Außenhandelsüberschüsse, der Überkapazitäten in der Industrie, der Umweltzerstörung oder staatlicher Eingriffe wie Kapitalkontrollen oder Finanzrepression. Was viele dabei nicht erkennen, ist, dass dies lediglich Symptome eines einzigen, grundlegenden Problems sind: des zu Verzerrungen führenden Wachstumsmodells des Landes.

Dieses Modell ist in gewissem Maße ein politisch bedingtes Konstrukt: das Ergebnis einer tief verwurzelten Voreingenommenheit zugunsten der Bau- und Fertigungssektoren als führenden Treibern wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. Diese Vorliebe reicht bis zum „Großen Sprung nach vorn“ der 1950er Jahre zurück, als Altmetall eingeschmolzen wurde, um übertrieben optimistische Zielvorgaben bei der Stahlproduktion zu erfüllen und so Maos Traum von einer schnellen Industrialisierung voranzutreiben.

Heute manifestiert sich Chinas Vorliebe für die Industrieproduktion in großen Fertigungs- und Infrastrukturprojekten, die vom Staat direkt oder indirekt subventioniert werden. Dank Steigerung der Investitionstätigkeit und zusätzlicher Steuereinnahmen für die Kommunen hat dieser Ansatz eine unmittelbarere positive Wirkung auf das BIP als Bemühungen zur Entwicklung des Dienstleistungssektors.

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