中国的恶性增长循环

伦敦—大部分经济学家都有为中国经济担心的原因——消费不足和巨大的外部盈余啦,工业产能过剩啦,环境破坏啦,资本管制或金融抑制之类的政府干预啦,等等。很多人没有意识到的是,这些大多只是同一个根本问题的症候:中国增长模式存在缺陷。

从某正程度上说,这一模式是政策导致的结构,是根深蒂固地偏好建筑和制造业作为经济发展主要引擎的结果。这一偏好可以追溯到20世纪50年代的大跃进,在这场运动中,为了满足太过于乐观的钢铁产量目标,进而实现毛泽东的快速工业化梦想,炼出了大量废金属。

如今,中国对工业产量的热衷可以从大规模制造业和基础设施工程中一览无余,这些工程的背后是直接和间接的政府补贴。这一方针能刺激投资、为地方政府带来税收收入,因此比发展服务业的政策对GDP有更加迅速的积极影响。

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