Shanghai shopping road Matteo Colombo/Getty Images

解构中国的经济恢复力

纽黑文—中国经济再一次否定了消极论者的聒噪。在经历了连续六年的减速后,真实GDP增长在2017年呈现出上扬之势。据最新报道,中国GDP第二季度年化增长率为6.9%,高于2016年的6.7%,也远高于国际预测者的共识。几个月前,他们认为中国增长今年将接近6.5%,2018年将进一步放缓至6%。

我一直指出,过度关注标题GDP导致人们忽略了中国增长讨论中的更深层次的问题。这是因为,中国经济正处在一个波澜壮阔的结构转变过程中——制造业领衔的生产国模式将让位给日益强大的服务业推动的消费国模式。

这意味着GDP的组成将从投资和出口的超快速增长,转变为增长相对缓慢的内部私人消费,因此,总体GDP增长将是不可避免的,也是应有之义。对于中国疲软的观点,应该放到这一环境中去考察。

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