Rooftop in China

La traqueteada nueva normalidad de China

SHANGHÁI – El desplazamiento de China desde un modelo de crecimiento impulsado por las exportaciones hacia uno basado en el consumo de los hogares ha sido mucho más traqueteado de lo que algunos predijeron, con fluctuaciones bursátiles y volatilidad en el tipo de cambio que incitan temores acerca de la estabilidad económica del país. No obstante, según parámetros históricos, la economía de China aún se desempeña bien – el crecimiento anual del PIB está cerca del 7%, algunos dirían que se desempeña muy bien – pero el éxito en la escala que China experimentó durante las últimas tres décadas hace que se engendren expectativas elevadas.

Hay una lección básica: “los mercados con características chinas” son tan volátiles y difíciles de controlar como lo son los mercados con características estadounidenses. Invariablemente, los mercados adquieren vida propia; no se les puede impartir órdenes fácilmente. En la medida que los mercados puedan ser controlados, dicho control se logra al establecer reglas de juego en forma transparente.

Todos los mercados necesitan reglas y regulaciones. Las reglas buenas pueden ayudar a estabilizar a los mercados. Las reglas mal diseñadas, independientemente de cuán bien intencionadas sean, pueden tener el efecto contrario.

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