Rooftop in China

Die holprige neue Normalität Chinas

SCHANGHAI – Chinas Übergang von exportgetriebenem Wachstum hin zu einem Modell, das auf Dienstleistungen und Haushaltskonsum beruht, war viel holpriger als allgemein angenommen. Verwerfungen am Aktienmarkt und volatile Wechselkurse haben Besorgnis über die wirtschaftliche Stabilität des Landes ausgelöst. Historisch gesehen funktioniert die chinesische Wirtschaft zwar immer noch gut (mit fast 7% Wachstum im Jahr könnte man auch sehr gut sagen), aber der Erfolgs der letzten drei Jahrzehnte hat die Erwartungen in die Höhe geschraubt.

Dazu gibt es eine grundlegende Erkenntnis: „Märkte chinesischer Art“ sind ebenso volatil und schwer zu kontrollieren wie solche amerikanischer Art. Generell können Märkte nicht leicht herumkommandiert werden, sondern sie haben ihren eigenen Willen. Wenn sie überhaupt kontrolliert werden können, dann nur durch transparente Spielregeln.

Alle Märkte brauchen Regeln und Regulierungen. Gute Regeln können zu ihrer Stabilisierung beitragen. Schlecht durchdachte Regeln haben den gegenteiligen Effekt, wie gut sie auch immer gemeint sein mögen.

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